China'S Textile And Garment Exports Narrowed In 1-4 Months

Since 2020, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has been rampant around the world and the world economy is at a standstill. The global economy is facing a double impact of demand and supply. The barometer of merchandise trade released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in May 20th shows that the volume of world merchandise trade will decline sharply in the first half of 2020. The index is currently 87.6, far below the benchmark value of 100, the lowest since the index was released in July 2016. China's textile and apparel international trade is also showing a relatively low performance. According to China's customs data, in 2020 1~4, China's total exports of textiles and clothing amounted to US $70 billion 139 million, down 10.49% from the same period last year, although it has narrowed compared with the 1~3 month decline, but it still fell 7.17 percentage points over the same period last year.

International market demand for clothing has dropped sharply.

Under the impact of the global epidemic, China's textile and clothing exports dropped even more than the 2009 after the financial crisis. In April, despite the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the steady and steady resumption of economic activities, the overseas epidemic is still spreading and fermented, and various restrictive measures adopted by various countries to fight the epidemic situation. Not only has the international economic and trade cycle hindered, but also greatly inhibited people's consumption enthusiasm and consumption ability, especially the demand for clothing represented by the consumer goods market has been in a low ebb.

According to the US Department of Commerce statistics, the US retail sales plunged 8.7% in March this year, the biggest decline since 1992. Sales of clothing and clothing stores fell 50.5%, and department stores fell 19.7%. According to Japanese customs data, imports of clothing from the world dropped by 9.48% in the 1~4 months of this year, while imports from China dropped by 14.49%. My share of clothing in the Japanese market has dropped to 53%, down 3 percentage points over the same period last year. From the European perspective, the German retail association said that sales of clothing fell by 75% to 85% in 4~5 months. Global Data also predicts that sales of clothing and shoes this year will be reduced by 26.1% and lost about 14 billion pounds this year.

The sharp weakening of clothing consumption demand in the international market has directly affected the product structure of China's textile and clothing export. Since the beginning of this year, China's textile and clothing exports have shown the obvious export characteristics of "spinning up and falling down", and the proportion of garment exports has dropped to below 50% for the first time in many years. According to customs data, in 2020 1~4, China's textile exports amounted to US $39 billion 167 million, an increase of 1.32% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $30 billion 971 million, down 21.99% from the same period last year. Although in recent years, the growth rate of clothing exports in China is basically lower than that of textile exports, the scale of textile and clothing exports has continued to close, but the proportion of clothing exports has basically remained stable above 55%. Affected by the epidemic, the proportion of clothing exports in China has dropped to 44.2% in 1~4 months.

Mask protective clothing as an important export support

Contrary to the sharp decline in exports of traditional clothing products, the demand for relevant anti epidemic materials has increased sharply in the international market, making masks and protective clothing exports an important support for China's textile and clothing exports. The epidemic of the new crown pneumonia is spreading all over the world, and all countries are facing the arduous task of fighting the epidemic. As a major producer of textile and clothing, a big consumer country and a big exporter, China is actively promoting the textile industry to resume production in an orderly way, and strive to ensure the supply of domestic anti masked protective clothing and other anti epidemic materials. At the same time, it also contributes to the global epidemic.

According to our customs data statistics, in 2020 1~4, China exported 8 billion 855 million masks and 801 million dollars of protective clothing exports, accounting for 13.8% of the total textile and apparel exports to the world over the same period. It has become an important support for China's textile and clothing exports.

From the perspective of market structure, with the continuous spread of the epidemic in the world, the demand for anti epidemic materials in the three traditional markets of the United States, Japan and the EU has increased dramatically, driving the growth of textile exports to the United States, Japan and the European Union.

According to China Customs data, in 2020 1~4, China exported 5 billion 93 million US dollars to the US, up 16.83% from the same period last year, of which the amount of export masks accounted for 33% of the textile products, amounting to US $1 billion 691 million. During the same period, our exports to Japan were 2 billion 441 million US dollars, up 46.22% over the same period last year, and the amount of export masks accounted for 40% of the textile products, amounting to 967 million US dollars. Our exports to the EU amounted to US $6 billion 613 million, an increase of 62.32% over the same period last year, of which 54% of export masks accounted for 54% of textiles, amounting to US $3 billion 573 million. Even the amount of masks exported to Germany account for 64% of the total textile products exported to Germany.

The export situation of textile industry is serious in the future.

Overall, with the export of masks, protective clothing and other anti epidemic materials, China's textile and clothing exports grew by 10% over the same period in April, and the total export decline continued to narrow to around -10%.

Although the epidemic is still spreading around the world, the global demand for anti epidemic materials is still huge, but there will be no explosive demand after a round of growth. It is expected that the epidemic prevention products such as masks and protective clothing will still maintain a certain export scale in the next period of time, but in the long run it will achieve a normal export after reaching a balance between supply and demand. The specific time to strike a balance is one or two months or longer, depending on the development and control of the epidemic in the world.

In 2020, the pressure on China's textile exports increased significantly due to the epidemic. According to the World Trade Organization forecast, Global trade will drop by 13% to 32% in 2020. The weakening of international demand will affect the performance of China's textile exports, and China's textile and clothing exports will remain low.