Polyester Filament Price Breakout Failure, Polyester Production And Sales Once Again "Shrink"!

Last week, stimulated by the strong rebound in the crude oil market, chemical products were booming, driving the polyester filament market to keep rising. Not only did the price rise for 4 days, but also production and sales were broken many hundred days.

But this week, the market for polyester has dropped significantly. Although prices remain stable, production and sales in recent days are quite different from last week's.

As we all know, under the control of the global epidemic situation, although all countries have begun to implement the measures of economic unsealing gradually, the real demand has not yet recovered. The release of the demand side of the polyester filament in the early stage is mostly dependent on the upstream raw materials to release favorable factors, thus stimulating the textile enterprises to passively copy the bottom and replenish the goods. Now that the good news has been released, the price of crude oil has stabilized, and there has been no further surge in the market. The market of the downstream weaving has not been substantially reversed, so the polyester has begun to return to its normal fundamentals.

Lack of good stimulation, polyester price stability

In the past two days, although polyester production and sales continued to be sluggish, prices remained stable. Specifically, the polyester filament FDY 150D quoted at 6270 yuan / ton, POY 150D quoted at 5425 yuan / ton, DTY 150D price is concentrated in 7100 yuan / ton.

Compared with the same period in April, the current polyester price can be said to be out of the "historical lowest price" label, but the market is currently lacking strong strong stimulation, it is difficult to provide strong price support for polyester filament.

For the polyester market, the support of upstream cost and the release of terminal demand can drive the industry chain to pick up. But recently, the upstream and downstream have begun to lose heart.

Cost support collapse: PTA is difficult to store, ethylene glycol stock is in the new high year.

PTA and ethylene glycol are the most important raw materials for polyester filament, and the fluctuation of their prices has played a leading role in the market trend of polyester market.

PTA, as of 22 days, PTA social inventory in the vicinity of 2 million 320 thousand tons, is still at a relatively high inventory level. At the same time, the load of PTA has dropped to about 80% in recent years. At the same time, the effect of PTA removal is still not obvious while the load is decreasing. We can see that the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is not strong at present. In the later stage, when the crude oil and equipment are hard to be stimulated, the price of PTA will fall greatly.

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Glycol, East China's main port inventory once again refreshed the new high in the year. As of 22 days, ethylene glycol East China main port stock rose to 1 million 290 thousand tons nearby. Some time ago, ethylene glycol East China port port congestion, the overall rhythm of warehousing slowed down, coupled with the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol has maintained relatively low level, so the price center of gravity has been significantly supported. But recently, ethylene glycol has concentrated in the port, and the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is not strong, and the consumption of high inventory is slow. If the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is still weak, the price of ethylene glycol under the suppression of high storage will be reduced. PTA and glycol have loosened under the cost side, and the probability of falling polyester filament prices has increased.

The recovery of terminal demand is slow: the global garment industry is facing an epidemic shock wave.

Recently, the world's largest freight forwarder or 20 thousand employees were laid off, 20 thousand of the largest freight forwarders or 20 thousand employees were laid off.

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The global trade has shrunk dramatically due to the new crowding around the world, resulting in a sharp decline in global transport logistics service demand. As the world's largest freight forwarding company, the impact of international transportation on the epidemic has the most intuitive feeling.

At the same time, the recent clothing industry has also come to the news of bankruptcy. Some famous brands have even suffered a fatal disaster and embarked on the road of bankruptcy.

In May 4th, the famous clothing brand J.Crew filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming the first nationwide retailer to apply for bankruptcy protection since the outbreak of the US epidemic.
In May 10th, Stage Stores, an American department store operator founded in 1992, announced that it had formally filed for bankruptcy protection.
In May 19th, Reitmans, a Canadian fashion retailing group, announced that it had filed for bankruptcy protection at the high court of Quebec.

It is reported that Canada's famous feather down brand "Canada goose" has laid off about 250 people as the new crown has reduced its demand for high-grade burlap jacket.

Far more than that, more clothing and department stores in other countries are also suffering from the epidemic.

Beginning in March, with the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, orders were temporarily canceled or postponed indefinitely, textile foreign trade orders almost stopped. Coupled with the demand for domestic trade, the textile industry has also entered the "ice age". The inventory of fabric in weaving enterprises has soared higher than last year's highest level, and grey cloth has opened up a chaotic price war. In desperation, weaving enterprises have reduced production and negative loads, and the loom rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has dropped to around 6.

After May, with the surge of crude oil at the beginning of the market, the price of polyester was welcomed, and the enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers increased. The market was slightly better than before, and the inventory of grey fabrics began to decline gradually. At the same time, with the resumption of production in Europe and the United States, the textile industry seems to be in the early light. But looking at the weak economic and demand brought by the epidemic, the global textile and garment industry has been hit hard, and the demand for repeated bankruptcies is still difficult for a while. The textile industry has always been walking on two legs in both internal and external trade. Foreign trade is not going well, and domestic trade is even more difficult to explain.

In the current form, the situation of polyester filament is still "hard to catch up with the enemy". The market still depends on the good release of the cost side and the stimulation of news. It is still very difficult to change the present situation through the substantive demand of the terminal. Terminal demand has not yet recovered, especially export orders. As an important opportunity to reverse the polyester and textile industry, there has been no obvious concentration release, and the textile market will continue to bear pressure soon after entering the traditional off-season. For polyester filament, there is no demand, the price wants to "break through", the possibility is smaller, and even there is a greater risk of downfall.