Slow Recovery In Consumption And Pressure On Cotton Market

At this stage, cotton city continued to shake for more than a month, the direction of operation seems to be not very clear. Even before yesterday's USDA5 monthly announcement, the price of cotton has not been much improved. There is still a big difference in whether future consumption is expected to recover.

Yesterday, USDA announced the May monthly report, the content is obvious, but the market reaction is very dull, domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to oscillate trend, of which cotton cotton in the continuous rise after a slight callback, Zheng cotton still maintained low shock, especially in the report significantly raised the global cotton consumption data nearly 11%, it is a big surprise. When the number of confirmed cases of the global epidemic breaks through the 4 million 100 thousand barrier and the road to epidemic epidemics is still far from being expected, the sharp increase in consumption data is unavoidable. Market professionals believe that this is the usual trick of USDA to ensure that US cotton exports get better returns, which is not worth making a fuss. But it also shows that the news of Lido is still in place. Cotton prices are still flat and market pressure is still there.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2020 1-4 was 66 billion 620 million US dollars, down 12.06% from the same period last year, of which the total export volume of clothing was 29 billion 308 million 900 thousand US dollars, down 22.33% from the same period last year, which is higher than the first quarter.

From the clothing export data, despite the control of the epidemic situation in April, the social production and operation activities have gradually entered the right track. However, due to the continuous impact of foreign epidemics, China's clothing export faces great pressure. Looking back at the domestic consumer market, although the relevant departments have released a series of data in recent years, there has been a relaxation of the good situation, but the spinning and clothing market is still "pressure mountain" and the recovery rate is slower than other industries.

The recent emergence of some well-known clothing brands, which cut down the number of stores and slash jobs, have also proved that the market is still in a predicament.

Of course, hail and other extreme climates in Xinjiang recently have also been supported by cotton prices. Some cotton fields are seriously damaged and need to be replanted or reproduced in time. Suitable growth weather is needed in cotton growing stage during bud stage, flower ring stage and boll opening period. Whenever these extreme climates occur, the yield and quality of cotton will be affected. As a result, cotton prices naturally strengthened when entering the weather. However, the impact of this factor on cotton prices will gradually decline. According to the recent changes in Xinjiang's production, unless the occurrence of a major natural disaster occurs, the output data of Xinjiang will generally fluctuate within or below 5% (because Xinjiang will have large or small extreme weather every year), which has limited practical effect on prices.

In the cotton price has not yet gone out, the market continues to fluctuate, as long as the epidemic has not been fundamentally controlled, the consumer market will take a longer time to recover, expect that the "V" rebound probability will only become lower and lower.