Under The Reform Of The Gem Trading System, The "Even Board" Mode Fails And The Value Strategy Is Better.

The reform of gem registration system started and the market responded quickly.

In April 28th, the three major indexes rose and the growth enterprise board rose 1.29%. On the night before, the regulations on the administration of initial public offerings registration (Trial Implementation) of gem were promulgated, and a series of basic systems were clarified, especially the innovation of transaction systems involved.

In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter learned that many of the private equity firms, known for their strategy of linking up the board, issued a document saying they would "adjust their investment strategy".

From the first trading day after the release of the trial rules, funds are also concentrated on leading enterprises with relatively high performance. On that day, shell index dropped 2.32%, storm technology, environmental protection and other risk stocks fell more than 5%.

Many organizations believe that with the reform of the registration system of gem, and the gradual optimization of the trading system, the decision of investors will become more rational.

"Our judgment is that the first step is to relax the rise and fall of 20%. In the future, we may completely liberate the price limits. This is a final direction of evolution. In addition, we may realize T+0 transactions in the future. This is the direction of reform." In April 28th, Guangzhou Xuanyuan Cci Capital Ltd investment director Yang Xia pointed out.

"Even board speculation" is restrained.

The trial plan of the registration system reform of GEM has affected the logic of speculation of some investment institutions.

According to the rules, after the registration system of the second board, the new listed companies do not set up the first five days of listing. After that, the price limit has been adjusted to 20% from the current 10%. It is worth noting that when the formal implementation, the stock market growth enterprise price limits will also be adjusted from 10% to 20%.

As part of the document, some market participants speculated that the 20% increase and fall limit would help the market to improve the activity. "The floor board could earn 50% at most, and the day floor could lose 33.33%".

However, in twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters interviewed several agencies that the current rules do not represent positive sentiment, but will hurt some retail investors and hot money speculation.

The first thing to bear in mind is the pure game playing board arbitrage transaction of some hot money.

"Some people in the market say that the fall from 10% to 20% will be good and flexible? Our conclusion is just the opposite, and the market will weaken the flexible strategy. " Yang Xia said.

First of all, in the logic of speculation, Yang Xia pointed out: "some of the idle funds are purely game oriented, and arbitrage is flexible. Before the trading limit was 10%, many stocks appeared "linked to plate" phenomenon. The logic of this part of speculation lies in the suspension of trading through the "Lian ban", giving the market enough time to focus on and filter out these targets, and ferment and self strengthen through media and K-line charts.

But after the change to 20%, this part of the investment behavior is very unfavorable. "Assuming that a fixed amount of capital is fixed, the market will be able to achieve 5 trading boards before the price rises. Now it may be two difficult, and the more needed funds chain will show exponential growth. After the change to 20%, the funds under this trading strategy will be greatly reduced. Yang Xia added.

In fact, this effect is very obvious in the market of 20% hit and sell boards. According to incomplete statistics, at present, there are about two stocks and more than 3 stocks on the Chuang Chuang board. They are excellent carving, Hua Xingyuan creation, and Bo Rui medicine, all of which are two continuous plates.

"Compared to other parts of A share, the number of boards of these companies is very small. After the first 20% gains, the power of speculation was reduced, and the difficulty of the sealing board increased exponentially. Yang Xia said.

On the other hand, there are also institutional forecasts that the high volatility caused by changes in the trading system will speed up the liquidation of retail investors.

Liu Jinhui, manager of Shenzhen Yong Qian asset fund, said: "the increase in volatility does indeed increase many trading opportunities, especially for some investment institutions that are keen on band trading or high turnover, but the stock price will still fall all the way to the risk exposed enterprises, until the delisting will not improve as the price increases."

In Liu Jinhui's view, the amplification of market ups and losses will give research capability stronger, and more accurate investment institutions for the valuation of enterprises will bring more opportunities to buy low and sell high. The increase of band will also cause retail investors to face bigger losses and speed up the withdrawal of retail investors.

From heavy game to heavy value

With the gradual landing of registration system and gradual improvement of Ke Chuang board and gem trading system, the strategy of market investors is changing from heavy game to heavy value.

"Hongkong and the United States mature market, the daily growth list has doubled or even ten times the target, greater elasticity. But these are basically penny stocks, that is, watching the excitement, and trying to form an investment strategy. The difficulty of making money is almost the same as the probability of winning the lottery every time. It really wants to become a stable and profitable long-term business, or depends on the large number of votes before the transaction. Yang Xia pointed out.

? ? ? Liu Jinhui also pointed out: "under the long-term effect of the registration system, A shares will tend to mature market, such as Hong Kong stocks and US stocks," the 28 effect. In the future, the small fry will be suppressed, and the number of small cap stocks with mediocre performances will increase significantly, the shell value will be reduced, the number of delisting will increase, and the research capability of investment institutions will be higher and higher, because buying wrong stocks may drop by 20% a day. More. "

In the upcoming implementation of the registration system of gem, the market differentiation is already a foreseeable future, and what measures should be taken now becomes particularly important.

In the view of Yang Xia, the current investment strategy of the market will mainly change from embracing flexibility to embracing liquidity.

"A lot of speculation in the market is based on resilience (strategy). A concept does not necessarily have the biggest market value, or the best quality, but the biggest elasticity. And the best thing to do is to go up to the last and the longest. "

"We suggest investors to choose stocks or to choose the best ones with the best turnover, and there will be a liquidity premium in the future. Since last year, we have also found that part of the head of the idle money operation has begun to bias the institutionalization. Yang Xia said.

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