International Observation: Cotton Imports In March Are Expected To Remain At A High Level.

According to customs statistics, the total import volume of cotton in China in 2020 1-2 was 410 thousand tons, down 19.6% from the same period last year. 2019/20 (2019.9-2020.2) has accumulated 820 thousand tons of cotton imports (2019.9-2020.2), a decrease of 26.1% over the same period last year. Brazil cotton, American cotton, India cotton and Australia cotton are still the main force of China's cotton imports, the total import volume is about 379 thousand and 900 tons, accounting for 92.16% of the total; the number of general trade imports of cotton is 243 thousand and 600 tons, accounting for 59.11%. The import processing type of imported cotton is 57 thousand and 300 tons, accounting for 13.9%. The other is the import of warehousing and re export goods in the bonded area.

The industry thinks there are three points to note: first, the import of cotton in Brazil accounted for 56.57% in 1-2 months, leaving the US cotton, Australia cotton and India cotton far behind. Two, the proportion of imported cotton imports from warehouses in the bonded area reached 18.63%, indicating that in the late January, when the outbreak of the new crown epidemic broke out in China in late January, some international cotton traders and domestic importing enterprises promptly adjusted their directions and increased their transport to Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan. Three, cotton import or processing trade accounted for a relatively obvious decline in the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday in 1-2 and the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, which led to a great impact on Global trade, production, transportation and exchanges.

Some cotton trade enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places indicated that under the premise of holidays, epidemic situation and large enterprises postponed resumption and resumption of production, the import volume of cotton reached 410 thousand tons in 1-2 months. With some domestic textile enterprises and importers catching up with cotton import quotas and ICE plummeting before the end of February, a large number of "ON-CALL" point price contracts were passively traded (spot or bonded cotton) and RMB exchange rate "depreciated" and other factors. And in March, when the main contract of ICE fell below 50 cents / pound, the first phase of Sino US trade cooperation was vigorously promoted and the domestic production and marketing of textile and garment enterprises returned to the right track, the cotton imports would not be less than 200 thousand tons. In the first quarter of 2020, the volume of cotton imports is expected to exceed 600 thousand tons, becoming a landscape under the weak cotton market. The US cotton will challenge Brazil cotton's "first place" in China's import market, and India's short term cotton exports can be described as "a long way to bear" because of the continuation of "sealing the country, sealing the city and closing the port".