The Impact Of The New Crown Epidemic On The Global Textile And Garment Industry

At the beginning of 2020, a sudden new crown disease brought a shadow to the global economy, and the textile and garment industry was also seriously affected in this environment. In March 30th and April 6th, the International Federation of textile manufacturers and the International Fashion Federation jointly issued a report to study the impact of the new crown on the global textile and garment industry.

01 impact on garment industry

1. line revenue plunged

The sudden new crown epidemic has caused an unprecedented huge impact on the clothing market demand. In order to avoid the concentration of people, multinational governments require stores to close, resulting in a 100% decrease in turnover. The government has also urged people to maintain social distance and stay at home without forcing the closure of clothing stores. McKinsey reported that European entities' clothing stores' turnover decreased by 30%-40%. In areas with serious epidemics, turnover fell by 80%. Online sales can not compensate for such a huge loss in line sales. Online sales remained stable, with some 5%-20% declining.

2. small and medium-sized brand profits narrowed

The negative impact of the new crown epidemic on garment industry is more obvious than that of other industries. The reason may be that the decline of clothing sales has begun to appear before the outbreak. Coupled with the non essential attributes of clothing consumption, its sales plunge is inevitable. Consumers in Europe and North America need more food and DIY products, while buying clothes is not just needed. It is worth noting that the consumer's repressive behavior will give the market a signal of consumption saturation. Large online retailers have begun to promote sales through heavy discounts. At this time, when the weather gets warmer, it is in the winter and spring seasons in Europe and North America. There should be a larger consumption demand. The behavior of large online retailers will disrupt the market order and further squeeze the market share of small and medium-sized brands. In the current special period, we see that some trade associations are considering that the government should issue laws to limit the time period of discount. The European Union for democracy and freedom has formally proposed to the European Commission to implement this policy in the EU market.

The 3. industry chain must be united and face the crisis together.

In the face of sudden sales slump, many brands and retailers cancelled orders. In Bangladesh alone, as at 17:00 on March 29th, a total of 1025 factories reported 864 million items, with orders worth $2 billion 810 million being canceled, affecting about 2 million 60 thousand workers. The negative impact of retail sales quickly spread to the whole industry chain. Bad faith procurement is also common. Brands either abandon suppliers directly or try to face the crisis through deeper cooperation. The International Fashion Federation has publicly condemned the unethical procurement practices under the spread of the new crown, and called on the industry chain to unite to face the crisis. In fact, what is needed in the crisis is buyers / retailers and their manufacturers, and manufacturers and their suppliers, through a more creative way, to solve the negative impact of the economic downturn on the entire industry.

4. price pressures are unpredictable.

Offline retail is completely shut down, and sales can only be resumed after the end of the quarantine period. Restoring retail depends entirely on the situation of epidemic control and whether it can prevent the two outbreak of the virus. However, when stores are re opened, branding is also facing tough situations, such as excessive inventory and sluggish market demand. In this way, we need to lower prices to encourage consumption, which will lead to long-term low unit prices and difficulties in industrial recovery.

5. digitalization or ease of industry crisis

The new crown epidemic also has no positive effect on the clothing industry. The bottleneck of the development of the whole industry has been revealed before the outbreak. The direction for the improvement of the industry has been clear. The epidemic appeared at this time, which urges the industry to make more rapid changes. In November 2019, the theme of the thirty-sixth international fashion Convention held in Antwerp was "the transition and transformation of international fashion industry". The International Apparel Federation has identified this theme long before the outbreak of the outbreak. The industry is changing. One aspect that needs to be strengthened is the digitalization of the industry. The development of digital products can greatly reduce costs and improve market response. It can also reduce traffic and transportation expenses. The new crown disease has once again demonstrated that digitalization is a major and urgent challenge facing the apparel textile supply chain. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on its cooperation with the garment and textile industry.

02 impact on the textile industry

1. production and orders double fall

So far, there are few information about the specific impact of the epidemic on the global textile industry. We can only see the market trend from broad indicators in some industries. In March 6th, the IHS Markit published the purchasing managers' index article entitled "the new crown epidemic situation in February has an impact on all industries", which may also represent the situation of the textile industry. The report has included the textile industry in the category of "household and personal products". In recent months, the category's output and new orders index have plummeted.

(source: ITMF)

2. the sudden drop in turnover will turn to a longer-term downturn.

The only source of information on the impact of the new crown on the global textile industry is the forty-sixth newsletter released by the Federation of international textile manufacturers in March 26th, including the first survey of the association's impact on the global textile industry. The survey showed that as of March 25th, 25% of the enterprises received additional orders, about 50% of the enterprise orders were postponed or cancelled (the order quantity was 10%), and about 33% of the enterprise orders were postponed or cancelled more than 10%. In addition, 20% of enterprises are expected to increase their turnover than in 2019, and 40% of enterprises expect a 10% decrease in turnover. 40% of enterprises expect turnover to drop by more than 10% (or even as high as 20%-60%). The current industry difficulties include the safety and health of workers and employees, the disruption of supply chain, the shortage or delay in the apparel industry, the sluggish or declining market demand, and the shortage of cash flow. However, some companies say that the epidemic can help simplify their internal processes and become more powerful. The production of medical and epidemic related products and semi-finished products will increase further.

(source: ITMF)

Only three weeks ago, some areas had not been fully affected by the new crown epidemic. However, the sharp changes in the above orders and turnover data reflected the blow to the overall demand of the global garment industry. The sustainability of the epidemic will become an important factor in the industry's trend.

03 challenges and opportunities

Challenges: shortage of demand and liquidity

Demand shortages and / or future demand will shrink.

Enterprises lack liquidity

Opportunity: medical textile products

Companies believe that production of health care and protective fibers, spinning, fabrics and related end products may be new opportunities.