The Annual Report Is A "Magic Mirror": Empty Speculation Does Not Mention "A Monster" 100 Times Earnings Growth Stealth.

300618.SZ, one of the leading companies in the cobalt industry, lost 98% of its profits in 2019, while its share price rose by 58%. After the start of the annual report, it began to fall freely in mid February.

Will the similar cases continue to be staged before the end of the end of the April annual report?

As for many "stock kings" in 2019, earnings growth obviously lagged far behind the share price increase.

For example, 300526.SZ is neither new nor uncommon. In 2019, revenue and profit increased by more than 30%, but its share price was 4 times higher.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report, after examining the popular plates in 2019, found that both artificial meat and industrial hemp, or the concept of futures, all belong to the relatively vague concept of speculation, which can not bring substantial gains and profits to the listed companies.

In contrast, the driving force from the industry level is more reliable. For example, the ETC sector's 300552.SZ net profit in 2018 was only 6 million 500 thousand yuan, and it was directly to 830 million yuan in 2019.

Which of the two is more reliable? It is self-evident.

King of the four seasons

"Last year, the speculation of A shares on the concept of subjects has actually cooled down, but there is always a feeling of endless growth." In March 26th, Wang Lin, general manager of investment, said.

Direct performance is the reduction in the number of new shares. However, this does not prevent some vague concepts.

In the first quarter of 2019, it was the world of industrial hemp concept. 002564.SZ rose from 2.5 yuan to 12 yuan, up 390.72% in the current period.

Although the subsequent share price has continued to fall, it has nearly doubled since then.

As a result, the company's performance Bulletin shows that revenues and profits have declined across the board, and net profit has changed from 101 million yuan in 2018 to a loss of 196 million yuan.

The key to profit and loss is that the company has raised 312 million yuan of goodwill impairment in the current period, and has not mentioned the industrial hemp in its performance bulletin.

After entering the two quarter, the hot spot was rotated to the rare earth permanent magnet and artificial meat plate. China Steel 002057.SZ (300748.SZ) increased by 160.96% and 142.15% respectively. Meanwhile, the artificial meat concept stocks (000713.SZ) also rose 120.33%.

By 2020, the net profit of Sinosteel increased by 11.64% over the same period in 2020, and the net profit of magnetically increased by 6.54%.

On the whole, the one or two quarter of the "stock king" pulled up during the period, mostly for the concept of speculation, the market itself has also roughly predicted its annual performance.

And from the three quarter, 5G, TWS headphones, small cap technology stocks began to occupy the forefront of the list, such as Wan Ji technology, 002361.SZ and so on.

This type of performance has a relatively high gold content, and most companies have significantly improved their business performance in 2019.

TWS headphones' rovers, profit growth in the current period increased by 4, and profits increased by 130.34% over the same period, but profit growth also lagged behind the share price increase. Another example is Cheng Mai Technology (300598.SZ), the current net profit increased by 945.68% to 166 million yuan.

In contrast, the three futures stocks listed in the two quarters of the year become the leading companies in the second half of the year, but the annual performance is not optimistic. In 2019, the increase in profits was not increased.

First of all, the revenue of Ruida futures is 951 million yuan in the current period. It mainly depends on the increment of risk management business, but the gross profit margin of this business is only 1.03%. The main profit point brokerage business has been significantly affected by the decline in the whole industry's commission rate.

Nanhua Futures (603093.SH) gross profit margin in the current brokerage business decreased by 23.09 percentage points to 0.5%, and the net profit was 46.59%.

"In order to survive, small companies compete for market share with a very low commission rate, forcing large Futures Company to reduce their rates, and their own cost is obviously higher than that of small companies, such as equipment, R & D team input, etc. this trend is hard to reverse in the short term." Zhengzhou a Futures Company front desk business personnel said.

Instead of the two tier market, the stock prices of the two companies remain relatively high after the listing. In the absence of performance promotion, how long can we rely on that licence?

Annual report quarter

Speculation is not unworkable. It reflects the market's anticipation of future business upgrading. It only needs the actual profits to be delivered at the nodes disclosed in the annual report.

In 2019, there were also many cases of outstanding shares in the quarter, and there were many cases that were expected to turn into real profits of listed companies.

Wan Ji technology, ETC concept leader, 2019 runner up A shares, the cumulative increase of nearly 5 times. After the results were released, annual revenue increased by 376.56%, and profits increased by 12539.86% to 831 million yuan.

The performance driven and growth expectations of such companies can be seen from the ETC installation advertisements hanging from the banks.

The company said, "the company ETC electronic label shipments increased substantially compared with the same period last year, while the company roadside antenna products have completed construction projects and acceptance of the project, so that ETC business revenue has increased by more than 800% over the same period last year."

In various businesses, ETC roadside antenna business revenue increased substantially compared with 2018. The gross profit margin of ETC roadside antenna products is higher and the proportion of total business revenue is higher than that in 2018, which drives the overall gross profit margin of the company to rise.

This is driven by sales volume, and the promotion of price level is more obvious, which has been vividly displayed in the cyclical industries in 2017 and 2018.

Once, the profit per ton steel production exceeded 1000 yuan, and the annual profit of the listed steel enterprises was 1 billion yuan. Last year there was a similar profiteering industry, that is, pork stocks throughout the year.

002157.SZ rose to the top 10 of A shares in the first quarter of 2019. At that time, the price of pork had not yet risen, and the market capital was nothing more than buying a company's expectation.

The next few quarters are expected to begin to materialize. The industry has seen an astonishing growth in profits in the three and fourth quarter since its breakeven point in June.

All year round, the technology net profit of Zheng Bang approached 1 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 777.53% over the previous year's 193 million yuan. Another "net red" pig herding stock (002714.SZ), the current profit growth is more than 10 times.

By contrast, the above sales and price driven themes will undoubtedly be more easily converted into profits of listed companies, thereby bringing about practical support for the already rising share prices, rather than the market speculation that the industrial hemp and artificial meat have gone up sharply.

"Summing up, the theme of speculation is divided into policy driven, such as the FTA, Xiong an New District in the past few years, as well as encouraging the import substitution chip stocks." Wang Lin also said that at the same time, it also includes the derivative effects brought about by regulatory policy adjustment, such as encouraging mergers and acquisitions in recent years to prompt the related targets to rise sharply.

In addition, there are short term hype themes for short-term social events, such as vaccine stocks and mask shares under the new crown epidemic.

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