How To Break Through The Spread Of Global Epidemic

After the February 28th limit, Zheng cotton began to rebound this week, and the market seemed to be in the early light. In fact, under the detailed analysis, the crisis in cotton city has not yet been lifted. Many people in the industry even believe that this Zheng cotton rebounding or "drinking poison to quench thirst".

First of all, what is the reason why Zhou Zheng cotton plummeted? The root cause is the spread of the epidemic in the world. More than 60 countries and regions in South Korea, Japan and Europe and the United States have confirmed cases, and who has transferred the global risk level from "high" to "very high". As a result, the global market "big falls", Zheng cotton dragged down into the deep track.

Why did Zheng cotton stop and rebound again this week? Actually, there are many reasons, such as "normal rebound after deep fall" and so on. However, the main reason for the analysis is also from the rescue efforts of various countries. For example, on Tuesday (March 3rd), the Federal Reserve announced 50 emergency cuts in order to curb the economic losses caused by public health emergencies, and for the first time since 2008, the rate of emergency interest rate cuts has also been the biggest in ten years. The market expects that the global central bank will also join the loose camp, gold prices soar more than 3%, and the bulls will rise again.

One chaos and one treatment led to a sharp fluctuation in domestic and foreign cotton market. However, it is also a consensus that there is no way out for cotton.

Judging from the transmission rule of the new crown pneumonia, the spread of the global epidemic is still at an early stage. According to experts, there is no definite timetable for complete control.

Therefore, a basic judgement of the market for the first half of this year is:

First, global consumption will enter the era of great depression. Now, there are no vaccines, no specific drugs and no standard treatment plan. The only way is to not gather, go out, block infection channels, or even sleep at home to contribute to society. Affected by the new crown pneumonia, many recently held exhibitions of internationally renowned textile industry have been postponed or cancelled by officials. For example, the Jakarta international textile and Garment Machinery Exhibition 2020 was postponed on April 27-30 to July 14-17; the Colombo textile exhibition in Sri Lanka was postponed from March 5-7 to June 11-13.

A large number of stores, exhibition halls, supermarkets and shopping malls have been closed down or ready to close down. An outbreak will hit the global economy and global consumption will enter a big downturn.

Two, cotton will fluctuate widely in the game of "epidemic spreading in the world and government rescuing the market", but the general direction is still downward.

According to market feedback, some international cotton traders and traders have refused to cut cotton prices substantially. Analysis of reasons: first, the signing price of 12/1 month is high, at this time the loss generated by sales can not be borne; two is affected by the global outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it is estimated that the number of cotton shipped, arriving, delivering and warehousing in 2-4 months will decline a lot. Three, the policy rescue measures are closely promulgated, especially the increasing liquidity of central banks.

However, many cotton traders also say that the current price is a double-edged sword. The global epidemic continues to spread, and in addition to the great depression that affects consumption, market logistics will also be hit hard. On the one hand, the market is in urgent need, but on the other hand, the flow of goods is not smooth.

Therefore, under the epidemic situation, the general direction of the market is downward.

Three, as an enterprise, how will we break through? The author believes that first of all, we must rely on the Chinese market. Up till now, the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled. With the resumption of enterprises and the resumption of production, the market is gradually active. Therefore, the order should be tilted to the domestic level. Second, there will be more and more foreign orders breaking and cancelling. Traders and middlemen should plan ahead to reduce losses. Thirdly, speed up the transfer of product structure. In some countries with heavy outbreaks, masks and other protective products are becoming scarce. And with the spread of the epidemic, market demand will also increase. Therefore, the transfer and adjustment of the product structure of cotton and textile enterprises will get closer to the first stage. In short, the global economy has been battered in the year of great calamity. As an enterprise, we must recognize the situation, find new opportunities and seize opportunities so as to reduce losses or achieve new achievements. Encourage each other.