Is The Epidemic Turning Point Approaching The Spring Of Small And Medium Enterprises?

If a person wants to survive but does not cherish Gao Zhi's development, he or she may earn a living; but as an enterprise, there are only two consequences of survival or failure, and there is no intermediate state. Market competition is brutal, but it is precisely the repeated tribulations and crises that make an enterprise experience and grow.

The epidemic before us is not only the punishment of nature to greed by human nature, but also the test of goodwill of life cycle to small and medium-sized enterprises. As the key handle to stop the economic difficulties caused by the epidemic, the next decision of small and medium-sized enterprises will be related to the survival of the entire economic chess game.

　　 Where is the danger of epidemic situation?

Some people used "never heard" to describe the stock market on the first day after the holiday.

A shares opened trading in February 3rd. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.72%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 8.45%, and the stock market was a barometer of the economy. From the perspective of the feedback curve of the capital market after opening, it could not keep people from falling into the negative mood, especially when the consumer service sector, which once closed to the limit, dropped by 9.85%.

According to statistics, there are seven major outbreaks in the world in the past hundred years. At this stage, experts and scholars have judged and estimated the possible situation of the epidemic according to the economic impact of SARS or SARS.

1, relatively speaking, the logic of China's economic growth has undergone tremendous changes, from rapid growth to high quality development, and consumption has become the main growth momentum.

2, with the transformation of the economic structure, the proportion of the third industries in China's GDP has been rising, from 40% in 2003 to 53% in 2020.

3, we should not ignore the impact of the outbreak time. The epidemic will take place at the special time point of the Spring Festival, which will enlarge the impact of the epidemic on the economy.

4, from the domestic and international environment, many challenges, such as weak demand and uncertainty, are facing us. The epidemic has increased the downward pressure on the economy in the short term, and we need to be alert to many risks that may trigger.

Looking back on the crisis in the past years, the general character of the outbreak is that the risk of the financial system caused by the overlapping of various external factors is increasing, and the overall economy is deteriorating. Even if the regulators put a lot of capital to intervene in the market, it is also a temporary solution.

Some pessimistic people point out that if the outbreak of the crisis causes the corporate profit margins to fall out of control, then the systemic risk of the banking system will rise, resulting in incalculable serious consequences.

But a relatively positive view points out that with the rise of e-commerce takeaway, online education, telecommuting, online games and other industries, residents can continue to meet a series of needs even if they stay indoors, greatly easing the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy, and even the experience of high efficiency online office and so on will have a long-term impact on most enterprises.

Let's look at the changes in the capital market. Today's financial system in China is already a highly precise system with a high degree of linkage. After the A shares closed, the global stock market could not avoid a big drop, and the market sentiment was exaggerated. But from an objective point of view, the inflection point has not reached the turning point that the epidemic tends to decline.

Finally, from the perspective of consumers, we are looking at the homes of our families. The large crowded businessmen are replaced by the fixed supply points at the gate of the community. The physical stores have locked the gates. The shopping cart is filled with daily necessities and drug protective products supplied by the major electric providers. The cool cinema and the red card shop have been replaced by the online office APP, which is extremely popular. The situation is controlled within a certain range of space. From the initial card metering, stopping passenger transport and stopping at home, blocking the city, the landing of a series of reasonable measures has effectively stabilized the rise of suspected cases, and also indicates the decline of the overall consumer demand.

From the other side of the balance of supply and demand, the government revenue is reduced, and the relevant departments' project investment starts to stop in turn, and the projects in progress can not be shelved. For the industrial construction industry, road blockade and epidemic surveillance or traffic disruption are hindering the resumption of work time. The shortage of labor force in the short term will be the main factor restricting the second industry; and for small and medium enterprises, It is not those start-ups with bigger debt risks. How to save themselves in the face of shortage of front-end supply, weak back-end demand, sudden drop in operating cash flow and overall profit margins?

　　 Make every effort to save oneself and gain a firm foothold.

The most effective way to predict the future is to learn from the past.

In order to reduce the cost of enterprises in the crisis and stop losses as far as possible, it is hard to force the demand side that can not stimulate consumption, so policymakers should focus more on the supply side.

Starting from the profit statement of enterprises, there are two ways to increase the company's operating profit and net profit: one is to increase the income inside and outside the business, the other is to reduce the cost inside and outside the business. From the above analysis, it is known that under the social background of the epidemic crisis, the demand of consumers is stagnant only in the necessities of life, and the government and the outside investment are few. Therefore, we can only focus on the components of operating costs:

Business tax and bonus: sales tax should be paid by enterprises, and business tax calculated on the basis of the provision of transport services externally; calculation should be paid for urban construction tax and education fee; foreign sales should be made up of product composition of resource tax, after which business tax has been abolished.

Financial data show that under normal circumstances, the project will change synchronously with its operating profits. However, if the profits shrink sharply and the tax increases in reverse direction, there will be some reasons, such as tax arrears in the previous year, the time limit of accounting treatment and the policy of enterprises.

Operating expenses: transportation expenses, loading and unloading charges, packing fees, insurance premiums, exhibition fees and advertising expenses, as well as the wages and welfare benefits of the sales organizations, including the sales outlets, after sales service outlets, etc., which are sold by the enterprises during the sale of goods, and the operating expenses such as the expenses and business expenses of similar wages, as well as the purchase of commodities by the commodity circulation enterprises. The composition of purchase cost incurred in the process of buying goods.

Under normal circumstances, the project can best reflect the operation of enterprises, and has the greatest impact on current operating costs.

Therefore, when the roads are not smooth during the epidemic period, all provinces and municipalities should communicate with enterprise decision-makers in advance when they issue relevant control policies, do well in risk prompts, and open up special channels for production and living materials circulation according to actual conditions, reduce inspection links, reduce stagnation time, reduce business costs and sales costs as far as possible, and implement for entities. Part of the staff rotation system to reduce wages and expenses; medical manufacturing and other related enterprises can also contribute to the epidemic situation, and make high-quality, low-cost advertising.

Management expenses: the expenses of a company (including administrative staff and workers, wages, material consumption, office expenses and travel expenses), which are undertaken by the board of directors and administrative departments of an enterprise, or should be uniformly borne by the enterprise, such as labor union funds, labor insurance premiums, litigation fees, business entertainment expenses, staff education funds, research and development expenses, inventory losses, etc. Allowance for bad debts, provision for bad debts and inventory depreciation.

The project is usually determined by the size of the enterprise and the accounting policy at the beginning of its establishment.

Therefore, during the epidemic period, while ensuring the basic salary level of employees, enterprises should reduce material consumption, business expenses and unnecessary expenses as far as possible, and use remote offices to eliminate the scattered expenses such as housing subsidies, overtime subsidies, daily welfare and procurement, so as to reduce administrative expenses as far as possible.

Financial expenses: the net interest expenses generated by the enterprises in raising funds for production and operation, such as the net interest expense (interest expense minus interest income), net net loss (exchange loss, reduced exchange income difference), financial institution handling fee and other expenses arising from raising production and operation funds.

In general, large and medium sized enterprises with large fixed assets and equipment, or small and micro enterprises with large loan funds in the early stage of operation will have a greater impact.

Therefore, during the epidemic period, it is necessary to avoid borrowing too much money to build or invest projects which are difficult to recover in the long term. At the same time, in order to reduce the financing cost of enterprises, the central bank should increase money supply moderately, loose monetary policy and maintain exchange rate stability. When investment and consumption are declining due to the epidemic, the export volume should be preserved and the export economy will be used to make up and pull down the economy. 。

For every small and medium-sized enterprise decision-maker, the urgent task is to transform the strategy adaptable in the crisis. When the "white hot" epidemic situation leads to the listing of enterprises' inventory pressure, difficulties in capital turnover, inability to make ends meet, low efficiency and so on, improving management level and efficiency is the best solution.

　　 The summer solstice is not yet in progress.

The strategy is to do the right thing, and the tactic is to do the right thing.

On February 7th, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on supporting the new coronavirus infection, preventing and controlling the relevant fiscal and tax policies, and alleviating the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises. Pan Gongsheng, deputy director of the people's Bank of China and director of the foreign exchange bureau, said that the central bank made a special policy arrangement to support the winning of the epidemic prevention and control and the approval of the State Council:

The central bank will provide 300 billion yuan special re loan from the central bank and local commercial banks in some serious epidemic provinces and cities, and provide preferential credit support to key enterprises in the production, transportation and sale of important medical materials and living materials.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in January 2020, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises and non-public enterprises in China has exceeded 42 million, accounting for 99.8% of the total number of enterprises in the country. Among them, the number of SMEs registered in the industrial and commercial sector is about 4300000, with about 38000000 self-employed households.

Some experts suggested that from the perspective of risk prevention and control, we should estimate the risk at least three months or even longer. This long uphill battle is not only in front of enterprises, but also makes banks and other financial institutions take a breath of cool air.

Yan Chen, a branch of Bank of China in Changji, Xinjiang, said that at present, banks in various prefectures and cities have opened the green channel according to the regulatory requirements, extending their credit to small and medium-sized enterprises with loan difficulties until March.

According to the relevant provisions of the enterprise size classification issued by the Ministry of industry and commerce, financial institutions usually regard employees, business income and total assets as criteria for classifying enterprises. Enterprises only need to meet the requirements of A or B instead of A and B, so that they can enjoy relevant preferential policies as SMEs.

In order to avoid the phenomenon of "one size fits all", banks will also flexibly apply relevant regulations on the premise of strict credit audit according to their own business and economic environment.

Yan Chen further indicated that, especially in the branches of the non second tier cities, most of the SMEs' operating conditions were relatively well understood. If the epidemic spread to the normal operation of the enterprises, the bank would negotiate with the enterprises to work out appropriate repayment plans together, and make reasonable judgments based on the past business data.

"After a round of industry licensing, the impact of the epidemic is mainly on the human intensive industry. Taking Xinjiang as an example, the population is relatively small and most of the population is foreign. During the winter break, most manufacturing and engineering industries are also in a state of shutdown. It is necessary to take the factory closure to continue operation. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the market. All banks and financial institutions have the ability to save "promising" enterprises to a large extent.

For example, during the early stage of the transformation of the Construction Corps, a flour mill was faced with a capital shortage, and there was a lack of normal operating capital in the short term after the reform. We would use the approval of the exhibition and set up the repayment plan to put the loan out and save the enterprise.

But he also worried about the implementation of the policy: "although the policy has been issued to all banks, there are still a few enterprises that actually apply for the extension. We do not recommend that the enterprises make such decisions hastily, because this will likely affect the long-term credit data of the enterprises. The operation of this level is not mentioned clearly in the document. Besides, the mobility of the banks is also mentioned. Larger enterprises that have already applied will face complex procedures later to eliminate the impact. "

The epidemic is temporary, and the business operation is long-term. The policy issued at the regulatory level is undoubtedly a reassurance to the market, but who will pay the potential hidden danger? The uncertainty caused by the consequences of unsecured consequences is not only a barrier for SMEs to get out of the predicament, but also the crux of financial institutions' bad debts.

As the saying goes, a good start can bring good omen for the whole year, but the breakup of the sales chain, traffic barriers, the support of the government, the panic of the society, and so on, are all unfortunate signs of the hardship of the year.

At the moment, "open the door" is doomed to be "red can not", but for a long time, after the tribulation, we can still get up and run. When spring begins, everything will be fine.