Housing Prices In February Sales Of The 44% Giants Ranked Larger Than Ever, Hengda Ranked First In Hengda.

Under the new crown situation, the sales offices closed and the real estate market entered the "frozen" moment. The top 100 housing prices fell to freezing point in February. Nearly 9 of them fell to the same level, and only 7 sold more than ten billion yuan.

This is hardly the case in China's history of real estate sales. "During SARS in 2003, the market was not so bad." A developer in Beijing said that the market was almost frozen in February, although it started online sales, but it didn't work much.

Under severe contraction, the ranking of Housing enterprises has changed significantly. In February and the first two months, Guiyuan garden, which topped three consecutive years, lagged behind Hengda, lost the championship position, and the four giants of Housing enterprises fell to sixth, seventh place.

The epidemic continues and may not be stable until the end of April, which tests the resilience of every housing company. A series of chain reactions are emerging from sales to completion, investment and financing, delivery, personnel and so on. To be able to face the housing cycle of this cycle in a leisurely way, it may be possible to get a chance to overtake corners.

The opening of the real estate industry in 2020 was unfavorable. Developers look forward to something like last year's "little spring". - Gan Jun photo

Breaking the promise of "little spring"

The opening of the real estate industry in 2020 was unfavorable. Developers look forward to something like last year's "little spring".

Affected by the epidemic, most of the housing companies did not perform well. According to Kerri data, the total sales of top 100 housing enterprises in February were 324 billion 330 million yuan, down 43.8%, down 37.9% from the same period last year, setting the lowest monthly sales in recent years.

100 housing enterprises, 23 of the single month year-on-year decline in 20% to 50%, nearly 6 percent of the monthly performance of housing prices fell more than 50% over the same period.

The sales volume of the bibcock garden in February was 30 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.2% compared with the same period last year. The sales amount of Vanke in February was 28 billion 590 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% compared with the same period last year.

But there are still some housing companies achieving growth. For example, Hengda 2 monthly sales of 47 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the previous year, mainly by early preservation, as well as online sales, overlay discounts to pry the performance.

In contrast, the leader still showed the advantage of scale, and there were seven in February. Other housing companies ranked 10 and 20 have less than 5 billion of sales and 50 of the 50 highest housing prices.

In the first two months, the total sales volume of top 100 housing companies was 900 billion 720 million yuan, down 25.6% compared with the same period last year. Only 22 Housing enterprises with more than 10 billion sales contracts, a decrease of 10 from 32 in the same period last year.

In recent years, the top 10 and 5 of the housing enterprises have been relatively fixed, but this pattern has changed significantly in the first two months of February this year.

In February, Hengda reached the top of the list with 47 billion over 30 billion of Biguiyuan. Pauli ranked fourth in 21 billion 200 million place, while fusion group ranked 11 billion 900 million in seventh.

Vanke, Zhonghai and greenbelt are relatively stable. They ranked three, five or six in 28 billion 500 million, 14 billion 500 million and 12 billion respectively.

In the first two months, Evergrande also ranked 87 billion 500 million in the championship, Vanke followed closely, selling 83 billion 500 million yuan, and country garden 76 billion 500 million at third.

According to statistics, at present, the top 100 housing enterprises have launched 92 online sellers, but Zhongyuan Real Estate pointed out that this can only be regarded as a "warm-up exercise", mainly to grab tourists, increase user stickiness, for the real signing of the loan is not significant.

CEO Ding Zuyu of Yi Ju Enterprise Group believes that the epidemic has a greater impact on the sales of the first quarter, and housing companies still need to prepare for the continued decline in sales in March.

From past data, 1 and February accounted for about 8% of the total sales of commercial housing in the whole year, and accounted for nearly 9% in March. Ding Zuyu expects that in 2020, the total sales volume of Housing enterprises may be reduced by about 5%-10% on the basis of 16 trillion in 2019.

58 Zhang Bo, the dean of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, also believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the decline of the annual sales volume of commercial housing is almost inevitable.

Cash flow pressure

The stagnation and decline of sales are only the first impact on housing prices.

For housing enterprises, sales are the biggest source of funds, and the expenditures for projects, land, wages, suppliers, debts, interest on bank financing and so on should be paid separately. If there is no sales refund, the cash flow pressure will be greater in the short term, especially the developers who have been relatively tight in the early capital chain.

In addition, housing enterprises can not start on time or completed, will inevitably affect the late delivery. Generally speaking, the delivery time between developers and buyers is about 1-2 years.

However, Ping An Securities pointed out that the first quarter is the traditional off-season of construction industry. Considering the rush to work in the late peak season, the epidemic has little effect on the whole year. And the epidemic is a force majeure, and the delay in delivery is reasonable.

In response to the plight of housing prices, local governments first launched. According to the Central Plains statistics, in February, more than 60 cities issued 75 different levels of real estate regulation, mainly to ease the land transfer payment, the pre-sale fund supervision policy liberalization, in order to alleviate the housing enterprise financial pressure.

Demand stimulation is also brewing. "For a sector with an annual sales of 16 trillion, sales will not stimulate demand after the cliff clipper falls, and no policy is meaningful." Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei said.

Zhang Dawei predicted that from the point of view of market stability, local governments will continue to introduce some stable needs and improvement policies for real self occupied housing in March without violating the principle of "living without fire".

CITIC Securities analyst Chen Cong believes that the impact of sales in addition to demand side, there are supply side factors. He expects that the sale value of Housing enterprises will be very abundant in late March. "The huge cross year stock of available resources is generally rising compared with the beginning of 2019. At the same time, some places have publicly lowered the threshold for pre-sale, while others have actually accelerated the approval of pre-sale permits."

Mr Kerri is optimistic that the real estate market is expected to return to normal pace in the two quarter. Short term market supply will rebound rapidly, and the demand for housing in the first quarter will also be released, or will usher in a phased sales window period, when volume will rise significantly and usher in a small spring.

However, Ke Rui also reminded that if the epidemic continues to the two quarter, it is bound to cause tremendous pressure on the enterprise capital chain, especially for highly leveraged enterprises, the high cost of management costs and interest costs superimposed on the first half of the debt maturity, will face greater pressure on business and even survival.

For housing prices, Zhang Bo believes that at present, we should pay more attention to online sales, in addition to the improvement of the strength of customer lock passengers. We should speed up the promotion process of online transactions for some old customers who have already visited the premises on the spot. In addition, we should make full use of the policy support from all parts of the country, such as the relaxation of pre-sale policies in some areas, the relaxation of the terms of payment for the land, and the combination of our own situation, do a good job in land reserve and adjust the pace of sales.

He said that while paying attention to the overall level of debt, housing companies should pay more attention to the adequacy of cash flow, balance the relationship between scale and debt levels so as to ensure the safety of the epidemic affected period and appropriately adjust their own sales targets.

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