Assessment Of Vietnam'S Impact After 1 Years Of Effective Implementation Of CPTPP

Overall, CPTPP will have a positive impact on Vietnam's exports after 1 years of effective implementation, and will help Vietnam make a more balanced restructuring of the import and export market. According to Chen Junying, Minister of Commerce and industry of Vietnam, basically, CPTPP's commitment to abolish tariffs has stimulated growth in exports.

For example, in October (2019), in Vietnam, the export volume of the member countries that had already been implemented by Vietnam had been growing positively, and the export items showing growth were mainly Vietnam's export products, including all kinds of telephone and parts, other machinery and equipment and components, aquatic products and textile garments, and so on. (CPTPP)

It is worth noting that after the effective implementation of the agreement, Vietnam has shown good growth in a number of new CPTPP export markets. In the first 10 months of last year, Vietnam's exports to Canada grew by 28.6%, and exports to Mexico grew by 29%. Although Japan was not the new FTA partner of Vietnam, Vietnam's exports to Japan also increased by 8.9% due to the impact of CPTPP.

As for the import sector, Minister Chen said that the amount of imports from member states which had entered into force in the first 10 months of last year basically decreased or increased little since the effective implementation of CPTPP. As a result, the trade balance between Vietnam and CPTPP has reached US $3 billion 500 million, a 161% growth over the same period in 2018.

In the context of the promise of CPTPP and the basic economic conditions, the World Bank estimates that Vietnam's exports will increase by 4.2%. If the capacity increases, exports will increase by 6.9% by 2030. In addition, Chen also stressed that establishing FTA relations with CPTPP member states would help Vietnam to achieve a more balanced restructuring of the import and export market. Currently, it relies heavily on China, South Korea and other East Asian countries and a number of ASEAN countries. This is a key element for the Vietnamese economy to enhance its autonomy and independence.

In addition, Vietnam has signed 17 free trade agreements (FTA) since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, of which 14 have been signed and 3 have been in consultations (including ASEAN RCEP, Vietnam and the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) FTA, and Vietnam and FTA).