Weekly Market Dynamics (February 17, 2020 -2 23)

Raw materials: cotton market has been "riot", viscose staple fiber has been seasonally adjusted and polyester staple fiber has been sold at a low price.

Product end: the downstream resumption is increasing, and the market is waiting for the epidemic to end.

First, domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillate, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices is widened.

On Monday, in Pakistan, India and other regions locust disaster news hype, Zheng cotton futures rose, in February 18th, India announced the locust disaster basically ended, the concept of "locusts disaster" flameout, Zheng cotton futures returned to normal level, Friday fell slightly, spot prices followed futures prices rose slightly. According to China Cotton Association Research and understanding, about 50% of cotton textile enterprises have more than one month's cotton stocks. At present, enterprises are under construction, logistics is not restored, and cotton purchase intention is not high, so cotton spot market is less.

Specific data, domestic 3128 spot cotton spot average price 13526 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week rose 243 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price 13300 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week rose 310 yuan / ton; CotlookA index average price 77.55 cents / pound, compared with the previous week rose 0.34 cents / pound, New York cotton futures contract settlement price 69 cents / pound, compared with the previous week rose 0.59 cents / pound.

During the week, the spread of domestic and foreign cotton spread to 368 yuan / ton.

　　 Cotton price trend at home and abroad since 2019

Two, viscose staple fiber quotation seasonally adjusted, polyester staple fiber at low price.

In the week, the recovery rate of chemical fiber enterprises increased. According to the survey results of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the proportion of the enterprises surveyed was above 80%, and the proportion of reemployment personnel was above 60%. Market, viscose staple fiber prices seasonally adjusted, the price rose slightly, polyester staple fiber business quotation lowered, reduce inventory. Specific data, viscose staple average price of 9500 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week prices rose 70 yuan / ton, polyester staple average price of 6530 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week by 60 yuan / ton.

　　 Price trend of chemical fiber staple since 2019

Three, the gradual resumption of downstream work, the market waiting for the end of the epidemic.

According to the results of the coordination survey conducted by China Cotton bank, as of February 23rd, 64.3% of textile enterprises resumed work, and the recovery rate increased by 21.3 percentage points from the previous week. In addition, about 12% of the enterprises involved in the survey had insufficient orders, and the orders for other enterprises were mainly in years ago. Most enterprises say that the sales price of yarn is stable, and some enterprises do not sell because they have not started yet. Specific price, when the week 32 domestic cotton combed yarn spot price 20420 yuan / ton, and the price of the previous week was unchanged.

Although the downstream operation has resumed, the market has not yet entered the "state", the market is cold, and the quotation of imported yarn is maintained in the early stage. According to specific data, the average price of 32 Cotton Combed Yarns in India is 20600 yuan / ton, which is the same price as that of the previous week. The average price difference between the 32 pure cotton combed yarn is 180 yuan / ton, and the average price of 32 cotton carded yarn in Vietnam is 20400 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous week, and the average price difference of 32 cotton carding yarn is 20 yuan / ton.

During the week, the resumption of weaving in the coastal areas continued to increase, and the situation of the staff was improved. However, because most of the employees were outsiders, they needed to be isolated and observed after the plant, so the overall start-up rate was not high. The overall situation of the downstream dyeing plant is better than that of the weaving mill, and the inquiry price has increased slightly. Specific data, pure cotton grey fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill) average price of 4.80 yuan / m, and the price of the previous week was unchanged.

　　 Price chart of cotton yarn at home and abroad since 2019

　　 Price chart of gauze products since 2019

Four, outlook for the future

At present, the domestic epidemic has been initially curbed, but the spread of overseas epidemic is rapid, and the market risk aversion is heating up. Domestic resumption of production and production continues to increase, the logistics situation has been improved, but the overall recovery from the industrial chain is still some time. Cotton prices are expected to run concussion in the short term, and the price of gauze will continue to be stable.