Brokerage Multi Factor Deduction Trend Of Return Trend To Accelerate The Pace Of Industry Pressure Different

At the moment, the most sensitive data in the market are data on the resumption of work in addition to changes in the epidemic situation every day.

However, it is a complex matter to assess the reemployment. It is difficult to quantify the rate of return, and can only find clues from the related indicators, so as to draw a conclusion.

In fact, many brokerages also analyze and sort out the overall situation of reemployment from various dimensions.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter's combing, the common indicators used by brokerages include population migration, electricity consumption and traffic congestion.

The conclusion is also relatively close, that is, in addition to a few industries that are directly affected by the epidemic, such as tourism, they may continue to be out of business. Most industries begin to return to work in varying degrees around February 10th.

Slow recovery rate

The premise of resuming work is the return of labor force. Therefore, the core index of judging the resumption of work is "the volume of passenger transport during the Spring Festival" or the number of passengers sent across the country.

Many brokerages have strengthened the tracking of the data.

According to the data of the Ministry of transport, the rate of return of personnel is still at a low level: before the festival (from January 10th to 24th), the total number of passengers sent by the national railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation was 1 billion 143 million, an increase of 2% over the same period last year. As of February 14th, after the holidays (from January 25th to February 14th), 283 million passengers were sent to the country and 13 million 480 thousand people per day, down 82.3% from the same period last year.

According to the Huatai transport group, as of February 17th, the return rate after the festival was about 32.7%, and the return rates of main inputs were 36.9% in Beijing, 43.9% in Shanghai, 24.8% in Guangzhou and 31.2% in Shenzhen.

According to the CAAC, there are no more than 200 thousand passengers per day on -23 days in February 15th, less than 1/10 in the peak period.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter's tracking, with the targeted response from all over the country, it is expected to increase the return rate outside public transport, such as Henan, Shandong, Zhejiang and other places to organize migrant workers to return to post and charter cars. In February 18th, Mount Huangshan, Hangzhou, Fuyang Ningbo, Chengdu Hangzhou, Guiyang Guiyang and other customized retraining special trains have been opened.

Electricity consumption index is another index which reflects the situation of resuming work more intuitively. Cao Gang, an investment partner of zhe Hao, said: "the average daily coal consumption data we see are the sum of the daily average coal consumption of the six major power generation groups such as Zhe, Shang Dian, Guangdong electric, Guodian, Datang, Huaneng and so on. They are a large sample of electricity consumption coal."

The Huajin securities team compared the latest coal consumption data of the six major power plants with the data of coal consumption after the Spring Festival, and found that the overall increase was 5.8%.

In addition, Huajin securities, based on statistics in 2019, found that the 2019 Spring Festival time was from February 4th to February 10th. As at the end of February, the daily coal consumption data of the six power plants had returned to normal intervals. After the Spring Festival, the coal consumption data of power plants returned to normal, which took about 15-18 natural days. Based on the above statistics, we can see that although the resumption of domestic work is being carried out, the overall recovery rate is improving or relatively slow.

Wang Han, an analyst at Xingye securities, said that from the latest data, the average daily coal consumption has picked up. With the data of No. 19, the production capacity of the production sector has increased from 51.85% in February 17th to 51.85% in the same period last year. The rise in daily consumption of coal means that the resumption of work is being further pushed forward.

It is worth noting that according to the daily consumption of coal, research institutions have also found that there are differences in the situation of regional reemployment. The Huajin securities research team proposed that the data of Zhejiang power and Guangdong electric power, which were relatively concentrated in manufacturing industry, showed that the current coal consumption data of Japan were 11.2% and 6.4% higher than those after the festival, which were higher than the national average level, but the total daily coal consumption was still lower than the normal level. The manufacturing industry in Zhejiang and Guangdong has returned to work faster than the national average, but the rate of resumption is still not high.

And Shanxi securities has been tracking the number of coal consumption team that, from the daily coal consumption of power plants, February, 15-2, 19 days of coal consumption slowly rising trend continues, reaching 55% of the same period last year, the manufacturing industry resumed gradually.

Different industries return to work differences

From the overall situation, a number of indicators reflect the current recovery rate is still not high, but has been in the upward trend. However, the situation faced by different industries is quite different.

In addition, the reporter learned that there are specific indicators such as "blast furnace operating rate", "coking enterprise operating rate", "automobile semi steel tire start up rate", "cement mill operating rate" and so on.

Compared with previous analysis methods, such indicators are more focused on reflecting the re employment of related industries.

According to the research team of Huachuang securities, according to the sub sectors with intuitive data, the first industry segment industry has a higher operating rate than the upstream industries, such as PTA operating rate of about 80%, refinery operating rate of more than 70%, main steel mill operation rate of rebar more than 50%, and wire rod main steel plant operating rate of more than 50%. But the downstream is generally low, such as the total steel tire (mainly used for trucks) operating rate is 35.6%, and the semi steel tire operating rate (mainly for passenger cars) is 14.5%.

The downstream industry is more direct, and the auto industry is not ideal.

According to the statistics of Huachang securities, as of February 16th, the comprehensive recovery rate of the national commercial vehicle industry was about 17%. Specifically, according to the China Automotive association data, 183 vehicle production bases, 59 bases began to resume production, accounting for 32.2%. According to the data of China Automobile Circulation Association, the efficiency of car dealers' comprehensive resumption is only 8.40%, and the number of stationed merchants in the resumed market is less than 20%.

The situation of the service industry is also very different, and the rate of wholesale and retail logistics reemployment in the service industry is relatively high. According to official statistics, by the year February 9th, the proportion of key supermarkets was 92.2%, and the number of postal outlets nationwide was 41 thousand, with an opening rate of 72%.

However, other industries related to the life service industry (such as catering, accommodation, entertainment, etc.) are affected by the epidemic situation, and the rate of return to work is low, and the time for resuming work is longer than that of other industries.

"In fact, there is a simple conclusion that the industry's reemployment rate is relatively low due to the epidemic situation, such as 4S shops, real estate agents, sports and entertainment projects. The actual reemployment time in these industries may be later than expected from the psychological impact of the epidemic on the public." Cao Gang thinks.

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