Short Term Data Of Epidemic Situation Is Coming To A Good Turning Point? Experts: Caution Is Still Needed.

According to National Health Protection Committee data, in February 3rd and February 4th, the number of suspected cases increased in China for two consecutive days. Since January 30th, 6 consecutive cases of newly diagnosed cases have exceeded the number of new deaths. According to the current short-term data, the epidemic is developing in an optimistic direction.

The epidemic appears to be "turning point", but many experts believe that it is too early to talk about "inflection point". Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director of the China Center for Disease Control and prevention, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that infectious diseases have their own development laws, and there is a trend of rising and falling. They can not judge inflection points according to the data and fluctuations of a certain day.

Wang Chen, a vice president of the Chinese Academy of engineering and a medical expert in respiratory and critical care medicine, said in an interview with Xinhua news agency that there is no basis for judging the peak and turning point of the epidemic. The most effective way is to control the source of infection, and the two is to treat patients.

Short term data are volatile.

"No one dares to say (an inflection point) based on the data of a day. All data can not be straight away. It may fluctuate, and we have all said that the so-called inflection point is not so fast." For the public hot epidemic "inflection point" problem, Yang Gonghuan analysis.

In twenty-first Century, by analyzing the overall data of the epidemic, the economic report reporters also found that the volatility of the data was very strong. The newly diagnosed cases and the new suspected cases all experienced short-term reduction and then increased, and even the suspected cases appeared to decrease significantly within a day.

At the same time, Yang Gonghuan pointed out that even if the measures are right, it is impossible to reduce the number of cases immediately. "Because its foundation has so many infected people and has a longer incubation period, those infected persons may develop in these 14 days, and some undiagnosed cases will be diagnosed progressively, which will lead to an increase in the number of cases."

Lu Jiahai, Professor of the school of public health and President of the Guangdong provincial science and technology laboratory Federation, made clear to the twenty-first Century economic report reporters that the inflection point is that the number of epidemic figures has declined or not increased. If the disease does not increase in a continuous period of time, the total number will not increase or decrease. This is called the turning point. But from the current situation, the number of cases of transmission is increasing. "Lu Jiahai"

Up to now, according to the data of the National Health Protection Committee, there has been only a short period of new suspected cases and fewer cases of cured cases than deaths.

In recent days, according to the data of the National Health Protection Committee, the mortality rate has been decreasing continuously and the cure rate has increased continuously. However, the changes in mortality and cure rate are related to the enhancement of medical aid force and the continuous improvement of virus identification and treatment level.

Hu Shanlian, a professor at the school of public health, Fudan University, also told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that the inflection point can not be seen by single index data. "Now, the national health and Health Committee announces the epidemic situation every day, and there are 8 indicators, some of which are declining, which are good. At the same time, the number of suspected cases is also being released. This is also good for epidemic control."

In February 5th, Song Shuli, spokesman for the national health and Health Committee and director of the Propaganda Department, pointed out that the number of new suspected cases showed a significant decrease through the latest epidemic figures. One of the reasons was the improvement of detection ability, which made more suspected cases become confirmed cases or excluded, allowing patients to have better and more timely treatment, and more patients who were excluded from the suspected cases to return to normal life. This trend is the same both in the whole country and in Hubei.

Hou Jinlin, director of the Department of internal medicine of Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, believes that the inflection point can be divided into three categories.

"There are several serious epidemics in the whole province of Wuhan and Hubei, where these areas last for a longer time. Then there are other major imported cases, and the inflection point will be relatively early. It is expected to be 1-2 weeks. In some other areas, there are limited imported cases, for example, there are less confirmed cases in some places, there is no two generation and three generation of patients, and there is no aggregation. Hou Jinlin believes that the most difficult is Hubei Province, and after the Spring Festival holiday, enter a large number of provinces of Hubei population, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang.

Epidemic prevention and control still need to be strengthened

Although the inflection point is not immediately coming, the recent data are indeed developing towards optimism. Meanwhile, epidemic prevention and control are continuing to be strengthened everywhere.

On the afternoon of February 4th, Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the state health and Health Commission, said that a series of measures have been adopted, including community prevention and control, prevention and control measures to the crowd, and a series of measures have been taken in medical treatment to shorten the development of cases to the time of diagnosis. The suspected cases require immediate transfer to designated hospitals for treatment. Severe cases are concentrated in designated hospitals, and the professional teams at the national and provincial levels are responsible for the treatment.

At present, Hubei and Wuhan remain the top priority of epidemic prevention and control.

Since February 2nd, Wuhan has vigorously promoted the centralized treatment and isolation of the "four categories of personnel". It has been centrally treated for undiagnosed patients. The suspected patients have been treated centrally.

According to the twenty-first Century economic news reporter, as of February 4th, 28 designated hospitals in Wuhan announced the use of beds, opening 8199 beds and 8279 beds. In order to treat more suspected patients, many hospitals in accordance with the requirements of "full receivable", as far as possible to add beds, so some hospitals have already used beds larger than open beds.

In February 4th, the first batch of patients were received by the God of fire hospital, which was built in 11 days. Raytheon hill hospital is also stepping up construction. The total beds of the two hospitals are about 2600. In addition, Wuhan is stepping up its efforts to transform a number of gymnasiums and exhibition centers into shelter hospitals, providing mobile medical facilities for the treatment of mild cases.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report, the first batch of aid medical teams sent by various provinces and cities has brought powerful help to the affected areas. At the same time, the second batch of aid medical teams of Gansu, Anhui, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Shaanxi and so on have also started to arrive in Hubei recently, providing support for hospitals in Wuhan and Huanggang.

In order to better prevent and control the epidemic, the newly diagnosed new coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version fifth) has been treated differently according to other provinces in Hubei and Hubei provinces. Other provinces outside Hubei are still divided into two categories: "suspected cases" and "accurate diagnosis cases". Moreover, the "suspected case" standard is revised as follows: no matter whether there is an epidemiological history, the 2 clinical manifestations can be considered as suspected cases if they meet the "fever and / or respiratory symptoms" and "early leukocyte count or decrease in lymphocyte count". The criteria for suspected cases were relaxed. Suspected cases have pneumonia imaging characteristics, and are clinically diagnosed.

At the same time, in view of Hubei Province, medical personnel at all levels and all kinds of medical institutions need to be isolated immediately after finding suspected cases and clinical diagnosis cases.