Why Are The Main Funds Betting On "Tesla Supply Chain"? The "Scale Diffusion Effect" Of The Pure Electricity Revolution Of Automobiles Is Getting More And More Obvious.

In Tesla's entry into China for a whole year, Tesla's investment opportunities have never been as much concerned by capital markets as it is today.

In January 7th, Tesla Model 3, which has just fallen below 300 thousand, ushered in the delivery ceremony of the first batch of social vehicle owners, and on the same day, Elon Musk, who participated in the release ceremony, announced that it would officially launch the localization project of Model Y.

Affected by a series of events, Tesla supply chain concept stock has ushered in the expected rise since January. In twenty-first Century, economic statistics reporters Wind statistics found that the Tesla index (884216), with the weight of Tesla suppliers and concept stocks, has risen by 22.67% since the 4 week in December 20th and has hit a new high in the past two years.

In some investment institutions, the investment in Tesla's supply chain does not come from news driven "stir fry", but based on Tesla's potential to open up the bet on the scale change of the pure electric vehicle industry.

On the one hand, the new energy vehicle has significant differences with the traditional fuel vehicles in the core components, car body structure and vehicle platform, which will spawn the changes in the automotive parts and components system; on the other hand, the continuous sinking of Tesla is forcing the international large car enterprises to transform to pure electricity, while the suppliers after Tesla's localization are expected to show new growth in this industry change.

Expected difference opportunities

Since January 2020, a large number of suppliers of Tesla's concept stocks have gained a strong rise.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics Wind data, the ten thousand Tesla index (884216) has risen by 11.24% on the 4 trading days since January, and the total turnover is 87 billion 502 million yuan.

Specifically to the stock market, whether it is to provide the body mold of the Tianqi mold, or to provide battery pack shell of CXS shares, or to supply battery module accessories and interior and exterior decoration Wynn shares, since January this year has risen by more than 20%.

As for the main fund movements, as of January 7th, the main net inflow of the stocks in the past 5 days, including Tesla or power battery, such as Li precision, Tianqi lithium, Gan Feng lithium and NavInfo, were not less than 200 million yuan, of which the accuracy of the news was as high as 774 million yuan.

In some of the earlier investment institutions for Tesla suppliers, the logic of the layout in this area lies in the market's "expected difference" in the overall development of pure electric vehicles.

"The logic of valuation here lies in the expected difference. This is not a simple fundamentals that did not produce results, because the premise of Tesla suppliers is that pure electricity will become the next direction of change in the automotive industry. But there is no formal consensus on the electrification transformation of pure electric direction in the market. A US stock analyst who cares about Tesla said, "because the cycle of auto industry upgrading is longer, so the questioning cycle will be longer, so there will be more obvious investment opportunities."

The investment opportunity left by this "expected difference" is also recognized by many investors.

"As long as there are still many voices in the" black "pure electric technology line, this plate will always have an upward valuation space. Wu Bin, who is the head of a private equity agency in Beijing, said frankly, "for example, today some people are still questioning whether the big screen smart phone lacks physical buttons or the battery life is not enough." But in the past 09 or 10 years, there are so many doubts in the market.

Some people take the assumption of many problems in the domestic pure tram industry and the limit of battery energy density to judge the entire technical route of the pure electric vehicle is wrong, and some do not even consider storing the logistics cost to bet on the hydrogen energy route. Wu Bin said, "this kind of misjudgement obviously brings the potential valuation space to the pure electric vehicle."

"The energy density of power batteries is showing a development speed similar to Moore's law. On the one hand, battery technology, energy density and charging speed are constantly improving. On the other hand, the cost of lithium batteries is also decreasing after scale production, and Tesla's existence is actually proved to the market from the perspective of product strength, the technical route of pure tram is feasible." Wu Bin said.

The "diffusion effect" of supply chain

In the view of analysts, the price range of Tesla will not only affect the market of new energy vehicles, but will also encroach on the market share of international large car enterprises represented by BBA.

"Import status, due to supply chain, logistics, tariffs and other cost factors, Tesla in China is higher than the price of the same exchange rate in the United States, so the containment of Model 3 sales performance." A broker close to Tesla said, "but under the trend of gradual localization of vehicle and supply chain, Model 3 will have more and more room for price reduction."

Take the American market with localized production and marketing as an example, in the first three quarters of 2019, the sales volume of Model 3 exceeded the sum of BBA's same level vehicle models (BMW 2/3/4/5, Mercedes Benz C/CLA/CLS/E-Class and Audi A3/A4/A5/A6/A7).

"Model 3's real opponent is not the domestic new energy vehicle, but the fuel vehicle represented by BBA. The largest source of Model 3 in the North American market is Camry, or even Carolla." A Tesla insider said, "a wider range of sinks, thereby changing and consolidating the impression of pure electric vehicles in the automotive market."

In fact, the more important reason for some agencies to bet on Tesla suppliers is that the supply chain of Tesla will reach the expected rate of 100% domestically. According to musk, at present, the localization rate of domestic Model 3 parts is only 30%, and by 2020, the localization rate will reach 70%, and by the end of the year, the localization rate will reach 100%.

In the industry, it is expected that the parts enterprises that are expected to enter the supply chain of Tesla will have greater initiative in the wave of the global automotive industry. The reason is that there is a fundamental difference between pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles in the supply system.

"Before many domestic pure electric vehicles are actually EV of fuel vehicles, replacing fuel tanks and engines with batteries and motors. The production platform is also based on the transformation of traditional fuel vehicle platforms, but in fact, competitive electric vehicles must redesign the vehicle platform." Those close to Tesla's securities dealers said, "on the new vehicle platform, even if the car body materials, vehicle molds and die castings can appear to duplicate the fuel vehicles, they all have different technical distinctions, such as batteries which cause heavy vehicle quality, so we should reduce vehicle weight in other sectors."

"Good Tesla supplier fundamentals are not only Tesla sales, but potential capacity of the entire new energy vehicle market." Wu Bin pointed out: "because it can become a supplier of Tesla, the future probability will be able to become a supplier of traditional electric vehicle manufacturers and pure electric vehicle production platforms, no matter how well these models sell, the suppliers behind them are still making money."

"Shanghai is now the first overseas factory of Tesla, so the supply chain based on Shanghai factory will have the first advantage, and it will also have a stronger voice in the field of electric vehicles worldwide, which will directly bring about the value growth of the relevant supply chain enterprises." The brokers close to Tesla said.

In the view of it, more innovative automobile brands with product competitiveness will be born, and more effective performance incentives will be provided to suppliers.

Tesla has opened its core patents to the big electric vehicle industry long ago, coupled with the supply chain of new energy vehicles in the Yangtze River Delta, which will enable more innovative automobile companies to hatch in the country, and thus reverse stimulation of the value of the supply chain. The brokers said frankly.