Rising Raw Materials Drive PTA To Suddenly Pull Up Or Short-Term Action.

On Christmas Eve, PTA suddenly pulled up in the afternoon and jumped from 4950 yuan / ton to less than 4900 yuan / ton, although the increase of less than 2% is not unusual for PTA. But when the new capacity is concentrated, the market tends to be empty and suddenly rises unexpectedly. According to the current news, the price increase of raw materials PX is the main reason.

1, the rise of raw materials caused PTA small accident.

Zhuo Chuang information information shows that on the afternoon of 24, Asia's xylene will ship 832 dollars / ton CFR China in February, with an offer of 832 US dollars / ton CFR China; any March shipment of 822 US dollars / ton CFR China, with an offer of 822 US dollars / ton CFR China. On the eve of the Christmas holiday, the enthusiasm of buying in the market increased significantly and the trading atmosphere was active. Taken together, today's PX price has closed at $831 / tonne CFR, China's rise of $13 / ton. Due to the successful commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei PX plant, raw materials were supplied to the downstream PTA plant successfully, so the price of PX has been under pressure. However, due to the influence of festivals, the trading atmosphere has increased, and the price increase of PX is expected to be a short-term behavior. From the increase of PTA, the corresponding PTA cost of 13 US dollars increased by 70 yuan / ton, which is consistent with the closing price increase of the PX. At present, the processing fee of PTA is less than 450 yuan / ton, so the sensitivity of price to raw material fluctuation has increased. It can be seen that the accidental pull up in the afternoon is directly related to the price increase of raw materials.

2, PTA meets the peak production again.

In the past 2012-2014 years, PTA has been concentrating on production capacity, and prices continue to fall. In the 2015-2018 year, the domestic PTA capacity growth slowed down. The problem of overcapacity was gradually solved with the elimination of old equipment and the increase of consumption. In the 2017-2019 year, PTA welcomed the tight supply and demand stage, and the industry profits rebounded significantly. Beginning in late 2019, the first phase of new Feng Ming was 2 million 200 thousand tons (invested), four tons of Hengli 2 million 500 thousand tons (December 2019), Zhongtai Kun Yu (1 million 200 thousand tons), and Hengli five tons 2 million 500 thousand tons (two quarter of 2020), and a large number of giant devices were put into operation one after another. The rapid increase of supply will bring obvious pressure. After that, there will be 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Feng Ming two periods, Fujian's hundred tons 2 million 200 thousand tons, Honggang Petrochemical's 2 million 200 thousand tons, Yisheng new material, tons of equipment and so on, and large scale devices started to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2020. Therefore, in the long run, the supply pressure of PTA continues to rise and the price is weak.

Taking the above two points into account, the abrupt rapid pull up in PTA days is mainly driven by the rise of raw materials. However, it is expected that PX will rise for a short time and it is difficult to sustain. PTA will usher in peak production capacity again, with high supply pressure and low price.