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In 2019, PTA Production Capacity Increased By 14% PTA, And The Price Trend Became More And More Difficult.

2019/12/2 9:19:00 0

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2019 PTA Capacity PTA Price Trend

The cold winter has arrived, the PTA market price has already appeared the loose sign, and has the continuation trend. With the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant running smoothly, the boom in the commissioning of the new plant has begun, and the pattern of oversupply has become an inevitable trend. Only the remaining months of 2019, can it be expected?

First, demand side:

The polyester plant currently operates at 87.14%, maintaining rigid demand. But recently, Tiansheng, Xiang Lu, Da Wo, Bai Hong, Jin Xing, Quan Di, Jingwei, Jiabao and other enterprises have announced the overhaul situation. Most of them are concentrated in January, and only a small number of enterprises are in late December, but most of the restart time is after the Spring Festival. From this we can see that demand remained stable in the first half of 12, and gradually weakened in the late stage.

At present, polyester factory stock is under pressure, POY inventory is mostly in the vicinity of 7-15 days, individual high storage for one month; FDY stock is mostly near 9-16 days; DTY stock is mostly near 15-22 days. At the end of the month, polyester factories reduce the pressure of inventory by promoting markdowns.

The overall opening rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was 70%, down 6 percentage points from the end of 10. Terminal textile orders generally declined, forcing the opening rate to decline. It is expected that the downtime rate will continue to increase in December, and the comprehensive opening rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will drop to near 60%.

Two, supply side:

According to statistics, PTA capacity will increase by 6 million 900 thousand tons in 2019, and the growth rate will reach 14%. Output is expected to reach 44 million 645 thousand and 500 tons in 2019, an increase of 10.64 percentage points over the same period last year.

The main reason for the increase in capacity is that in 2019, Sichuan invested 1 million tons and the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA plant has been put into operation. Before the end of December, Hengli Petrochemical 4 phase 2 million 500 thousand tons / year and Xinjiang Zhongtai 1 million 200 thousand tons / year plan to put into production.

After entering December, the maintenance of the PTA unit is not yet clear, resulting in stable operation of the plant and a marked increase in output. According to long Zhong information projections, it is estimated that PTA will enter the situation of storehouse after December. See Table 1 for details.

Table 1 domestic PTA monthly supply and demand balance forecast

Unit: 10000 tons

	Nine month	Ten month	Eleven Month E	Twelve Month E	Two thousand and twenty January E	Two thousand and twenty February E
PTA yield	Three hundred and eighty-five point three one	Three hundred and sixty-eight point nine four	Three hundred and sixty-nine	Four hundred and ten	Four hundred and fifteen	Three hundred and ninety-six
Import volume	Seven point nine nine	Five point eight one	Seven	Seven	Seven	Seven
Total supply	Three hundred and ninety-three point three	Three hundred and seventy-four point four five	Three hundred and sixty-nine	Four hundred and ten	Four hundred and fifteen	Three hundred and ninety-six
Polyester demand	Three hundred and sixty-nine point four three	Three hundred and seventy-nine point six two	Three hundred and sixty-four point two three	Three hundred and sixty-two point five two	Three hundred and thirty-seven point seven three	Three hundred and twenty-five point seven six
Export volume	Three point eight	Four point one six	Six	Six	Six	Six
Other demand	Twelve	Twelve	Twelve	Twelve	Twelve	Twelve
Aggregate demand	Three hundred and eighty-five point two three	Three hundred and ninety-five point seven eight	Three hundred and eighty-two point two three	Three hundred and eighty point five two	Three hundred and fifty-five point seven three	Three hundred and forty-three point seven six
Supply and demand gap	Eight point zero seven	-21.03	-6.23	Thirty-six point four eight	Sixty-six point two eight	Fifty-nine point two five

Source: lung Chung

On the whole, in December, except for Jiangyin Hon bang and Helen petrochemical, there was no maintenance plan for the PTA supply side, and the new Feng Ming device had already been put into operation. Downstream terminal demand continued to be weak, some pet manufacturers due to profits and cash flow losses have reported in advance of the Spring Festival maintenance and burden reduction expectations, obviously earlier than the same period last year, the market does not rule out more polyester manufacturers due to inventory and financial pressure on the impact of early shutting down, reducing the burden, the overall demand for support is limited. Market mentality is pessimistic, and PTA prices are expected to continue to be weak.