Institutions Enter The Competition Season Of "2020 Forecast" Again, And There Is Gradually Consensus On Catching "New Asset Shortage Opportunities"

Standing in front of the 3000 point integer pass, more and more institutions are making predictions on the economic and market performance of next year.

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, there are many securities companies, such as CITIC, CICC, China Merchants, Societe Generale, Anxin, Pacific, Huachuang, New Era, and Lianxun, who have studied and judged the investment trend in 2020 through strategic reports or columns.

The reporter found that at present, the "asset shortage" caused by the coexistence of falling interest rates and downward economic pressure has become the focus of many institutions. Some institutions believe that this will bring greater allocation value to equity assets represented by A-shares.

However, some buyers' organizations believe that it is still necessary to carefully evaluate the external risk factors such as trade friction and the strength and space of countercyclical adjustment, and whether the current "liquidity trap" situation can be reversed in the short and medium term also needs further observation.

Most optimistic expectations

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that most of the seller's organizations still expressed optimism about the economic situation and market in 2020.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research and chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the overall economic trend in 2020 will be "low in the front and stable in the rear". In his view, the core focus of the macroeconomic trend is the negative impact of Sino US trade friction and the positive impact of domestic economic endogenous forces and counter cyclical adjustment policies. The negative impact of trade friction is weakening at present, On the contrary, the expectation of stable growth has been further raised.

"The improvement of infrastructure investment and real estate investment in the first half of the year will temporarily ease the greater downward pressure on the economy. Once the downward pressure on the economy slows down, the counter cyclical adjustment of investment may decline," Xie Yaxuan said, "However, the contribution of consumption to the economy will gradually increase in the second half of the year, so it is expected that the economic growth rate will remain relatively stable after rebounding in the first half of the year."

However, there are still buyers who expressed concern about the potential stagflation caused by a series of factors such as pork prices.

"It depends on the extent of the economic downward pressure, and the round of leverage reduction since last year is still relatively firm." The head of a private equity firm in Beijing said, "However, if the pressure is too great, some measures to stabilize growth are expected to further increase, and bring investment opportunities in infrastructure and other fields. But what needs attention now is the potential stagflation threat, because stagflation plays a great role in dissolving the fundamental recovery."

This concern is not unreasonable. For example, some institutions clearly pointed out that the pork price is far from reaching the inflection point of the callback in the macro research and judgment in 2020.

"Food prices are vulnerable to supply side interference. The growth cycle of vegetables and fruits is relatively short, and supply shocks generally do not last too long, but pork is different. The African swine fever virus is expected to survive for a long time. From the period of breeding pigs to the growth of fattening pigs, it is optimistic that the reality of high pig prices will be accepted in two or three years." New Era Securities pointed out.

However, some institutions believe that negative emotions such as "stagflation" concerns will instead form buying opportunities in the market.

"In 2020, the market will be dominated by the gradual fluctuation of the central market. In this process, expected changes such as" stagflation "concerns, economic stalling, and external environment may have a short-term impact on the market, but it will provide investors with more core buying opportunities." Industrial Securities Strategy Team pointed out.

"New asset shortage"

The new opportunity to bring equity assets may be related to an investment phenomenon, that is, the recurrence of "asset shortage".

The reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald noticed that "asset shortage" is becoming a high-frequency word in many seller organizations' 2020 strategy reports.

For example, Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategic analyst of Industrial Securities, pointed out in the 2020 investment strategy report on China's equity assets a few days ago that the global "asset shortage" in the coming year will have an impact on asset allocation.

"In 2020, the overseas' asset shortage 'may become more and more obvious, and it will be more difficult to allocate global funds. Compared with the increasingly over issued national currencies, safe assets with high cost performance and can bring continuous cash flow are scarce." Zhang Yidong pointed out.

Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities, also said that in 2020, there may be "asset shortage" under the combination of loose liquidity and new social and financial downturn.

In fact, after the A-share market fell sharply in 2015, the domestic investment market also experienced asset shortage.

"There are some differences between the two asset shortages. The asset shortage in 2016 occurred in the leverage stage, which is more reflected in the lower interest rate of bank funds after the limited use of shadow banking, capital allocation and other purposes, and then the funds turned to real estate and other fields." A macro analyst of a medium-sized securities firm in Beijing pointed out that, "But this asset shortage is actually caused by the fact that the real estate is limited and the risk appetite of the capital side is sinking, which can be seen from the popularity of interest rate debt."

In Zhang Yidong's view, the maintenance of the asset shortage trend, coupled with the continuous reform and opening up in China, will further bring about allocation opportunities for domestic equity assets.

"China continues to promote reform and opening up, China's economy moves towards high-quality development, and endogenous growth momentum creates more unique opportunities. The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar will be stronger in 2020 than in 2019, which is conducive to improving the attractiveness of China's equity assets." Zhang Yidong pointed out.

"In the first half of 2020, due to the high inflationary pressure, the monetary policy has constraints, and the market is more dominated by structural market." Zhang Xia also said that "in the second half of 2020, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, inflation will fall back, and the space for monetary policy will be opened. The market is expected to continue to rise in a more relaxed environment and under the 'asset shortage'. It is expected that the annual trend will show a similar anti L shape."

Popular technology stocks

Under the background of optimistic expectations and asset shortage, more seller institutions have directed their investment to the technology industry.

CITIC Securities put forward in its 2020 investment strategy that the technology sector will enter an upward cycle of 2-3 years, and pointed out that it can focus on 5G, cloud computing and self control.

"The expansion of MSCI has brought incremental capital of A-share, and the technology sector with global comparability and excellent growth is worthy of attention; State owned capital and industrial capital represented by the Large Fund for Integrated Circuits will also further help science and technology companies. " CITIC Securities said that it was optimistic about the investment opportunities in domestic technology industry driven by 5G and cloud computing, and suggested focusing on consumer electronics, telecom equipment, telecom operators, software&SaaS, IT hardware equipment, IDC and other high prosperity sectors.

China Merchants Securities also concluded that it is "optimistic about technology stocks" based on the reality of asset shortage.

"The interest rate is expected to further decline next year, and social finance may remain depressed. Under this environment, liquidity driven securities firms, stable growth real estate buildings, and counter cyclical medicine are expected to perform well." Zhang Xia said, "From the perspective of science and technology cycle and policy cycle, the market style of next year may return to the balanced or small market style, superimpose the new technology progress cycle, mergers and acquisitions are expected to be reactivated, and the TMT sector is expected to perform better."

Guosen Securities also pointed out that domestic high-tech high growth companies with a clear alternative direction are expected to become the main investment line worthy of attention.

"The interest rate decline is more favorable for companies with high growth and high value than companies with low growth and low value," Guosen Securities said.

In specific technology industries, 5G has become the focus.

For example, Zhang Xia believes that the strongest main line in 2020 still comes from the new technology cycle brought by 5G.

"The 5G mobile phone replacement cycle, the consumer electronics increment brought by VRAR, cloud games, cloud computers, and cloud mobile phone concepts will continue to be introduced, and data traffic will also increase exponentially with the innovation of communication technology. Huawei will lead the global consumer electronics, and the domestic substitution rate of the 5G whole industry chain will also be greatly improved." Zhang Xia said, "The era of Internet of Everything will also be truly realized in the 5G era, and with the increase of the number of connections, the ceiling of network security will also be greatly improved. Some of these areas may soon see performance."

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