The Advantages Of US Cotton Exports In The Crisis Are Promising.

According to USDA statistics, as of October 10th, the United States signed a total of 2 million 72 thousand tons of land cotton in 2019/20, a decrease of 0.2% over the same period last year, completing 59% of the forecast this year (5 years mean 52%), and Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other countries, cotton mills and traders have become the "main force" of the signing of the United States cotton.

Since the end of last September, the buyer's purchase of Chinese cotton in the late September has been echoed by the fact that the momentum of Turkey's signing of the main market for us cotton exports has also declined significantly (11/12/1 month sailing date), which is mainly dominated by the US and Syria in the battlefields of Syria (with the invasion of Syria by the Syria, the most powerful financial sanctions to Turkey so far, to punish the Turkish military operations in Syria), and Turkey to face the impact of the triple bonds on the economy, so that the cotton mill has been weakened or even suspended for the inquiry and purchase of the US cotton in the year of 11/12/1.

Some international cotton traders and agencies consider that considering the fact that the actual output of US cotton in the 2019/20 year is 727 thousand tons higher than that of the previous year (USDA released the October report), the initial inventory transfer is relatively large, the currencies of other countries depreciate against the US dollar and the US cotton market share in China has dropped to about 20% in the Sino US trade dispute. The fact is that the US cotton contract signing progress in 2019/20 is not slow.

First, the cotton production in Pakistan has declined sharply in the 2019/20 year, and the quality is very weak. It overlay the tension between India and Pakistan (most of the Pakistani mills and traders buy to exclude India cotton from the list), and the dependence on cotton and cotton in Brazil will be significantly improved. It is estimated that cotton imports in Pakistan will reach a record high of 5 million packages (850 thousand tons) in 2019/20, up 35% over the same period last year.

Two, cotton consumption in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia continues to grow strongly. Under the premise of "cotton cutting" in 2019, the quality of India cotton is not good, the price is not cheap and the export is limited, the US cotton will remain the key to the competition among Southeast Asian countries.

Three, substantial progress has been made in Sino US trade negotiations. China's purchase of US $400-500 billion agricultural products will include cotton imports (China's imports from the United States in 2017, US $24 billion 100 million). According to the analysis of the industry, combined with the export capacity of US agricultural products and the current import demand, the new US imports of agricultural products are expected to be soybeans, pork, corn, DDGS and cotton (of which cotton is up to 1 million tons). It is expected to significantly accelerate the signing process of US cotton and stimulate the ICE and international cotton spot prices to rise sharply.