Production Capacity, Terminal Shrinkage PTA Fell Below 5000 Points

Recently, PTA futures continued to decline and continued to fall. As of 23:30 on October 18th, the PTA futures contract fell to 4968 at 2001. It seems that there is a "no return" situation below 5000.

Behind the decline of PTA is a depressed economic environment. In the global market, the United States has been engaged in trade wars with China, ASEAN and the European Union, and the slowdown in economic growth has led to a decline in demand for terminal clothing. Under such circumstances, the upstream and downstream of polyester industry chain can only rely on "eating old books".

Supply and demand imbalance hidden, PTA fell below 5000 points

If we use a word to describe this year's PTA, it is "willful".

In the first half of the year, when the profits of polyester filament, PX and ethylene glycol were low, even when some products were in a loss situation, PTA was "one of the best" and the profit was over 1000 yuan.

But in the second half of the year, PTA's style suddenly became abrupt and became another kind of "capricious". No matter what good news on the market, PTA would not solve the price rise, even if it was a little higher than some unexpected events. The price of PTA futures is hovering around 5100 points.

The reason is that PTA's "old version" has been eaten up. In the first half of this year, the profit of PTA was high. The main reason was that PTA had almost no new production capacity in the two or three quarters of 2018 and 2019, resulting in a tight supply and demand of PTA.

However, this situation will be changed in the fourth quarter of 2019. Once the PTA device of Hengli and new Feng Ming's total capacity reaches 4 million 700 thousand tons, the PTA will become oversupply. This is the main reason for the short market PTA in the near future.

Weaving enterprises "eat old books" phenomenon is serious, the order are old customers.

Compared with PTA, the phenomenon of "eating the old version" in the textile market downstream of the industrial chain is more serious.

At the sixth Shengze Textile Expo, which was just concluded, Xiaobian interviewed several textile enterprises, including a large textile trading company, which mainly exported to India and Southeast Asian countries.

The head of the company said that this year's overall market situation is not good, so even if it has been regarded as the "blue ocean" Southeast Asian market, the export volume this year will not increase or decrease.

And for such a large demand but can do business and many conventional products, their company in the price difference is not very big time, generally will find a fixed factory. In such a market, there is no strong desire to find new suppliers.

This situation is reflected in weaving enterprises more obvious, it is understood that most of the weaving enterprises can receive orders are under the old customers. Some enterprises have a stable source of customers, a lot of lists, and a good life. Otherwise, it will be difficult.

But "old customers" are not omnipotent either. Once the problem of cooperative customers is perennial, things will become more serious.

During the previous visit, the head of a large weaving factory with more than 1000 looms said that this year they had an old cooperative customer who chose to withdraw from the market because of the shortage of terminal clothing orders, and the customer's orders accounted for more than 30% of the total volume in the previous year. Now the weaving Market is "less than enough". There is no way to get rid of the sudden empty capacity of 30%.

PTA's "old version" is almost finished, and weaving enterprises are facing the same dilemma. In the final analysis, the terminal market is shrinking, and last year's market is good, which led to the market's erroneous judgement on this year's market and excessive input in capacity.

Due to the lag of production capacity, when the market enthusiasm dissipated, the investment capacity before it seems a bit out of date, but it can not go back.

In the short term, the United States is fighting around the world, and the Sino US trade frictions are still continuing. In the field of international trade, the growth of the new Southeast Asian market has also stagnated this year. European demand has gradually shifted to recycled and environmentally-friendly fabrics, and the demand for traditional conventional fabrics has not recovered for a short time.

In the long run, when the international environment does not change dramatically, the overall trend of the world economy is developing. The demand for clothing is also increasing year by year. This year's downturn is just an example, and it may not last too long. Once the demand for electricity in the future is warmer, the surplus capacity in the past two years will be digested. Perhaps by that time, the market will really improve, and the rise of polyester products will be opened again.