After The Increase In Supply, Acrylonitrile Fell Down.

In October 8th, the 130 thousand ton / year acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Hai Jiang chemical plant stopped the operation for 7 months. At the same time, Anqing Petrochemical heavy repair time extended to November, the two phase of Jiangsu's load increased, and the overall supply of acrylonitrile increased significantly in October.

In fact, long before the start of the long holidays, due to the early release of the delayed news of the Anqing Petrochemical Company, and the expectation that the output of the state will increase, the industry generally has a bearish attitude towards the post holiday market. The restart time of Shandong's Hai River earlier than expected in October 15th has undoubtedly increased the market bearish atmosphere. Therefore, the acrylonitrile market fell on the first day after the holiday. In the short period of four days ending October 11th, the spot price dropped from 12800 yuan / ton before the festival to 11600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan / ton.

Figure 12018-2019 China acrylonitrile production and start up changes

Source: lung Chung

Note: the total capacity of acrylonitrile in China in 2019 September was adjusted to 2 million 249 thousand tons / year.

In October, acrylonitrile output was estimated to be around 180 thousand tons, an increase of nearly 30 thousand tons compared with September. The sharp increase in domestic output has directly reversed the tight supply situation since September. As the overall demand for the downstream increase is relatively limited, and pre stocking procurement also leads to some demand ahead of the overdraft. In particular, the starting load of the acrylic fiber industry is still maintained at 6, and the largest acrylic fiber manufacturer, Jilin chemical fiber, is still in the maintenance period. After the restart of the Jilin plant in October 9th, Qifeng will be overhauled to the end of the month in October 13th. ABS industry Shandong Hai Jiang in October 10th, Tianjin Dagu device to a full load operation, but Zhenjiang Chi Mei plans to overhaul in mid October for 10 days.

Fig. 22019 operation of main acrylonitrile downstream

Source: lung Chung

At present, most traders of acrylonitrile drop their psychological price around 11500 yuan / ton, taking into account the demand for replenishment before Anqing Petrochemical overhaul, and the expected growth in downstream demand. Traders are further cautious in their performance, and they express more concern about the trend of manufacturers. However, the downstream polyacrylonitrile factory has also taken the opportunity to sell raw materials at low prices. It is reported that the price is as low as 11200 yuan / ton. At present, the main manufacturers of acrylonitrile have no pressure at all, and the quotation remains stable. But it is expected that the sales pressure of some manufacturers will be highlighted in the second weeks after the holiday, especially in northern factories, such as Fushun petrochemical and Shandong Hai Jiang. When prices are lowered, the spot market price will drop further to 11000 yuan / ton.