Gold Nine Silver Ten PTA Price Is Suppressed Or Difficult To Pick Up.

Near the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season's critical time node, the market generally believed that the textile market will get better, but the recent PTA futures main contract frequently "hits the face" the optimistic person, the permanent base bottom concussion movement, does not have the opportunity to pull up at all, even in August 22nd once subducted 5000 points, the lowest achieves 5014 points to hit the new low.

If Kim Gu's market is coming, can PTA make any achievements?

Trade friction affects PTA trend

Further intensified by trade frictions, crude oil prices and the impact of the 3 quarter of Brunei and Zhejiang petrochemical PX production capacity is expected, PX prices upward resistance, profit margins smaller. From a higher level of crude oil trend, although the Middle East geopolitical clashes continue, but the market did not give a higher risk premium, instead, more attention to the US oil products consumption data downturn. Therefore, the cost side of PTA will maintain the trend of low oscillation in the short term.

Rising operating rate raises market concerns

Last week, the PTA plant focused on resumption of production and the operating rate rose to 94.55%, triggering market worries about supply. Among them, 700 thousand tons of Hua Bin Petrochemical Company, 650 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Company, 650 thousand tons of Yisheng Ningbo and 700 thousand tons of Li Wan polyester plant have been restarted. Fuhai's 4 million 500 thousand ton plant is currently loading about 6, and is lifting load. At present, the maintenance device has 350 thousand tons of Yizheng Petrochemical Company and 600 thousand tons of Jialong petrochemical company. HP Petrochemical 600 thousand tons plant plan, Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons plant planned maintenance.

Demand side market is still improving.

At present, the starting load of polyester industry is around 88.22%, and the ratio has risen, and production and sales are around 45%. The current polyester plant inventory is at a low level of around 10 days. Polyester factory cash flow is also improving, polyester profit of about 500 yuan / ton. In addition, new equipment such as Tong Kun Heng you 600 thousand tons has been put into operation in August, and PTA will still maintain a healthy process before the new PTA device is discharged in October.

To sum up, the load of the PTA unit is increasing and the price of PTA is suppressed. Polyester construction started to rise slightly in recent years, but production and marketing were rather cold. It is expected that the PTA price will not improve in the near future. But in the medium to short term, PTA inventory level is not high, so there is no need to be too pessimistic. (source: futures daily, Baocheng futures)