Cotton Market Stabilization And Warmer, But Whether It Can Continue Or Unknown?

Recently, the cotton yarn market has been slightly improved, but the price is still stable. As of August 22nd, the domestic C32S average price closed at 20803 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last week.

From the perspective of yarn inventory, the general situation of orders improved slightly in the late August. Some of the textile enterprises have gone out of stock, and the boot is expected to pick up. However, many textile enterprises say that there are almost no big bills, small quantities, and the number of goods being increased. With the arrival of "golden nine silver ten", some spinning enterprises have made full preparations. According to some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, although the market is in a doldrums, we should adopt differentiated production, upgrade the technological content, and maintain a balance between production and marketing, and enterprises will have better profits. For example, a trader developed new varieties and made an increase in turnover of 30% over the same period. A careful comparative study of these enterprises will show that their consistent business models determine their different results today. 1, take advantage of cheap raw materials, take the opportunity to take delivery, low cost. While many enterprises hesitate to cotton raw materials, many experienced manufacturers are quietly taking the goods at low prices; 2, differentiated production, diversified businesses, upper union traders, lower grey cloth enterprises, middle plus e-commerce marketing, extension of the industrial chain, and the introduction of advanced technology, this is the magic weapon for the long-term development of enterprises.

From the perspective of cotton raw materials, there are two kinds of voices in the market. The first is that it has touched the bottom. Since August 9th, Zheng cotton main force reported 12175 yuan / ton, Zheng cotton has been low finishing, especially in this week to explore 12800 yuan / ton around, in the short term no longer appears to rise or fall. In addition, market profits seem to be exhausted. First, the US tax increase has raised taxes on all US exports; secondly, on the 13 th of this month, it was reported that the US postponed tariffs on some of China's products, and China would immediately buy American agricultural products in a bid to ensure the smooth progress of the September negotiations. The two sides negotiated the talks on September. Stimulated by the above good news, ICE futures rebounded sharply, and the contract closed to 60 cents in December, closing at a high of nearly seven trading days. As a result, many optimists believe that cotton has bottomed out. And the second thinks that the bottom of cotton has not yet ended and has its own reasons. First, the trend of the US recession and global spread. Data show that the total debt of the US government has risen to $22 trillion and 570 billion and is out of control, which has exceeded the total GDP of the US in 2018. The two is the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the survey data of China Cotton Association logistics branch, the total cotton business inventory in the end of July was about 2 million 888 thousand and 100 tons, a decrease of 451 thousand and 100 tons from the previous month, but it was over 1 million tons over the same period in 2017 and 2018. From the analysis of some institutions recently, domestic cotton consumption in 2018/19 decreased or exceeded 1 million tons compared with the previous year.

The downstream fabric market also seems to be improving. Before the market said that the fight is not "like", is "lonely". In the 6 and July of this year, the market has faded to a new height, which has made traders particularly anxious, not only for fabric traders, but also for clothing traders. In the words of a Shengze trader, more than 200 samples have been played recently, but no 1 orders have been received. But the stalemate seems to have broken down recently. A trader in Shaoxing complained last week that orders were not comparable with previous years. This week, the number of orders received in August was almost the same as that in July. Most enterprises also say that the production and sales can be done smoothly in the near future, but it is not clear whether they can go to stock in the next few days.

To sum up, with the advent of the traditional peak season, the downstream needs have been gradually released. At least, the market has already seen the "dawn of hope". But the global economy in 2019 has entered a downward slope. The uncertainty of the market is very large. All walks of life can not escape this new economic cycle, and the textile industry is no exception. But the so-called "crisis" has both "danger" and "machine". The key is whether the enterprise can follow the trend and seize the opportunity. In the off-season, a brush will be kicked out of those companies who are busy with "counting the money" in the busy season, leaving a whole cake to those enterprises who are always worried about their sense and are willing to innovate and break through.