2019 Cotton Harvest Is In Sight, Experts Analyze Price Trend

In 2019, China's cotton planting area reached 47 million 530 thousand mu, a slight decrease compared with last year. At present, most cotton areas in the country are growing well and cotton is expected to get a bumper harvest. However, due to the current stock of cotton and consumption is relatively weak, new cotton will be under pressure after listing.

Cotton prices have continued to decline since June. In August 5th, the domestic cotton market price was 13994 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton, or 0.32%, compared with the previous working day. Compared with the same period last year, it dropped by 2326 yuan / ton, or 14%, compared with the beginning of this year, compared with the beginning of this year, it fell 2806 yuan / ton, or 16.7%.

In June 10th, Zheng cotton fell to a low level of 12720 yuan / ton, and has continued to be weak recently, which fluctuated around 13000 yuan / ton. In addition, commercial inventories and the pressure of Zheng cotton warehouse receipt are bigger, and the terminal demand recovery is slow. The downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric product inventory is high, and the inventory process is slow in the near future.

According to the data released by the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton planting area of this year is 47 million 530 thousand mu, which is 1.5% lower than that of last year. This year, the cotton planting area in the mainland continues to decline. The early weather is suitable for cotton growth. At present, the high yield is expected to be stronger. The growth of Xinjiang's cotton is relatively late than that of last year. But after the recovery in June and July, especially in July, the growth of cotton is better, and the gap is narrowing.

With the progress of cotton growth, cotton growers and cotton ginning mills have begun to calculate the price of the new flower this year. This year, downstream consumption has dropped significantly, prices have fallen, inventories have been overloaded, cotton purchases have declined, foreign cotton imports have increased substantially, and domestic cotton market supply is significantly larger than demand. At present, the resources of the cotton market are abundant, the commercial stocks are large, the downstream operation is not smooth, and the market confidence is low. Last year, many cotton purchasing enterprises in southern Xinjiang were losing money, and some of them might withdraw from the market. This year, the enthusiasm of new cotton acquisition enterprises will decline, and the listing price may be lower than the previous year.

At present, the mainland's sporadic three class 40 lint seed cotton purchase price is 3.3-3.45 yuan / Jin, and the quality of the new flower listing is expected to be better than that of the current market surplus cotton seed quality. Generally speaking, cotton growers and ginning mills generally do not expect high prices this year, but the actual situation needs to be determined according to the price of lint and the price of cotton seeds.

According to the survey, the ginning plant generally believes that the price of new flower opening scales in the the Yellow River Valley is not higher than 3.4 yuan / Jin, and the probability of 3.2-3.3 yuan / Jin is larger. The new cotton scale or price in the Yangtze River Valley is about 3.0-3.1 yuan / kg; the price of picking cotton in Xinjiang is about 6.0-6.5 yuan / kg, machine picked cotton or up to 5.5 yuan / kg.

On the one hand, due to the pressure of lint prices and the trend of new cotton post marketing cotton prices, on the other hand, based on the lowest psychological affordability of cotton seeds sold by cotton farmers, if cotton prices are too low, cotton farmers will show a strong reluctance to sell. In view of the poor market situation at the moment, the enthusiasm of Xinjiang's New South Flower purchase enterprises is worth noting. If the purchase is not fast enough and the price is not high, it is necessary to make corresponding preparations in advance. At present, the growth of new flowers has entered a critical period. Farmers should pay attention to weather changes.

Since the opening price is not expected to be strong, cotton growers hope that the cotton production will be raised, and cotton farmers' field management will be active. At present, cotton production in the unaffected areas of the mainland and Xinjiang is expected to increase. We should pay close attention to the weather and domestic and international market situation.