Early Warning: The Chemical Fiber Market Has Officially Entered The Era Of Capital Competition.

After half a year has passed, the arc market is not very good, but it is not too bad. However, as the beginning of the year, the whole market is hard to get a big improvement. The reason is simple: "serious excess capacity and sluggish demand". We need to change the current situation. At least one of the two supply and demand needs to be changed, or the capacity will be reduced or the demand will increase.

Whether it's earned or lost, the third quarter has become the decisive battle season for the whole industry. In the third quarter, the most anticipated season in the third quarter is the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season.

Xiaobian thinks, first of all, we need to solve the problem of high inventory and unreasonable supply and demand in the whole industry, but at least from now on, the supplier market does not have strong demand support to solve the above problems. On the contrary, the whole industrial chain is still increasing substantially.

1, polyester raw materials: PTA production or breakthrough year high, ethylene glycol increment can not be underestimated!

Upstream raw materials are also one of the leading factors. PTA and ethylene glycol as raw materials for polyester filament and other polyester products will also come into operation in the second half of this year. In the second half of this year, the supply of PTA increased by 5 million 900 thousand tons, including the new capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Feng Ming, the 1 million 200 thousand tons of Sino Thai Kun Yu and the 2 million 500 thousand tons of new capacity of Hengli petrochemical company. The main increment is the 2 million 200 thousand tonnes of new Feng Ming devices to be put into operation in September, which will push PTA output to a new high in the year.

The new capacity of ethylene glycol in the second half of the year is also not to be underestimated. It is possible to exclude some of the late delays. The newly confirmed market operation device has 100 thousand tons of Xinjiang Tianye new capacity, which is expected to be put into operation at the end of July. Inner Mongolia Rongxin 400 thousand ton glycol unit is now in the initial stage of commissioning. It is estimated that the production of ethylene glycol will be opened in the 3 quarter.

2, polyester filament: mergers or acquisitions, the market will face a more severe test.

The overall situation of polyester filament industry will still face a more severe test: the new supply side will be put into production, and there are many uncertain factors such as Sino US trade in demand side. Overall, the total domestic polyester production capacity in 2019 was close to 6 million tons. As of July, the domestic polyester production capacity increased by about 1 million 370 thousand tons in the first half of 2019. The new production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year, of which 2 million 160 thousand tons of polyester filament is expected to be released and released.

There are more than 80 enterprises in the polyester filament industry. The expansion of polyester filament is mainly concentrated in leading enterprises such as Tong Kun, new Feng Ming and Heng Yi. Polyester industry structure adjustment and production capacity concentration are improved. Leading enterprises rely on capital advantages, new capacity continuously put in, and mergers and acquisitions of the same companies are launched.

　　 In the second half of 2019, due to the concentrated production of polyester filament production (10%-30% capacity is expected to be postponed to 2020) and demand side, the Sino US trade relationship is still a big uncertainty in the textile and garment industry in the second half of the year. The final textile and apparel orders have not yet seen a significant qualitative change, so the steady increase of its supply side will have a certain impact on the supply and demand pattern in the second half of the year.

3, weaving Market: after the bubble, low price vicious robbing single market caused confusion and price confusion.

This year, the textile industry boom is not good, the upstream polyester demand is weak, the downstream fabric inventory is too high is the current market normal.

Data show that in the past two years to North Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi and other places of the new loom loom capacity exceeded 200 thousand Taiwan Customs clearance, far exceeding the Yangtze River Delta region traditional textile cluster eliminated the number of water jet looms. The volume of water jet looms in the entire textile industry is much larger than that before the "restricted" operation.

In front of making money, there is no sense of risk. We are desperately trying to expand the capacity of the new line, and we are afraid of losing the opportunity to steal money. However, the market rule tells us that the supplier market, which is formed without strong demand, is a pseudo demand. After the bubble, it left behind the situation that it did not lead to the failure to start normally, but also caused the market confusion and price confusion due to the low price of the market everywhere.

4, terminal clothing: clothing replenishment period ends, the pulling effect on consumption is weakened.

The demand for replenishment of spinning and weaving service has lasted for two years, reaching a peak in the fourth quarter of last year. Clothing in 11-15 years to inventory is the main reason for increasing demand for polyester raw materials, and 16-18 years of replenishment has stimulated the rapid growth of polyester consumption. With the end of the replenishment period, the pulling effect on consumption is weakened.

　　 From 2000 to now, the historical price earnings ratio of the entire textile and garment sector has been elongated. It can be clearly seen that the price earnings ratio of the entire textile and garment industry is in a relatively low historical position. In the second half of the year, the terminal textile and garment industry is still facing many unhappy factors, especially Sino US trade relations.

In addition, the risk of downside risks in the world economy continued to increase in 2019, and China's foreign trade environment was hard to say. The impact of import and export data appeared in the first half of this year, and the impact in the second half of this year will continue.

All in all, 2017-2018 years of polyester production and investment in the lower reaches of the polyester plant are more concentrated. The demand for the terminal has been rising and the industry replenishment cycle has reached a high point. In 2019, especially in the second half of the year, polyester industry and polyester raw material industry were still concentrated in production capacity, but there was no obvious change in the overall demand. When external uncertainties were not eliminated, demand still had a downside risk. The future chemical fiber industry will face a more severe test.

Therefore, Xiaobian thinks that when the market demand is difficult to increase and the capacity of the peers is difficult to exit in the short term, competition will be difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the market will hardly have the name of the peak season. In the era of price competition, quality competition and service competition, enterprises can enter the capital competition era.