Sino US Trade Consultation + "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Will Arrive, Where Will Zheng Cotton Rebound?

In the past two days, China and the United States are about to hold a trade consultation next week. They have brushed friends circles, and all walks of life are eagerly looking forward to making progress in this meeting. Cotton is no exception. Under the shadow of Sino US trade friction, the whole cotton spinning industry has been greatly impacted, and Zheng cotton has gone out of a big wave bear market, and now it is in urgent need of good to boost market confidence.

How high can this rebound height be? As early as more than a month ago, a senior investor predicted that the CF1909 contract rebounded at a height of 13800 yuan / ton. At that time, when the market pessimism and the downstream industry chain operation had not been improved, everyone thought it was a whimsical. But today, Zheng cotton CF1909 contract price is approaching this goal.

Under the conditions of the twelfth round of Sino US trade and the upcoming "golden nine silver ten" in the lower reaches, the cotton mill, traders and textile mills have begun to have confidence in the rise in cotton prices. Even some people have seen a high level of 14500 yuan / ton.

Dare to be aggressive when the market is calm, and be cautious when the market is expanding. The Sino US trade negotiations take the long march and not be solved in a short time. After all, there are still many differences and contradictions between the two sides to be resolved. There will also be ups and downs in the negotiations. It is really a fantasy to expect a few negotiations to be once and for all. Therefore, influenced by the outcome of the Sino US talks, Zheng cotton will also have a tortuous track, no matter whether it rises or falls, it will not be a straight line.

In addition, some people in the industry hope that the Sino US talks and the "golden nine silver ten" consumption season will resonate, and we can not say that this is a wishful thinking, at least relatively low probability. It was found that in the 2015-2018 years, except in 2016, in September, the price was in a standard rising channel. The rest of the year fell or shocked, and the "golden nine silver ten" did not seem to show the shape that the peak season should have. Especially when the downstream production is seriously shrinking, it is not difficult for consumers to recover.

From the new year, the new flower listing time is drawing near. Under the premise of predicting the output even or even increasing, supply will undoubtedly increase the downward pressure on the market. As the above predicted 13800 yuan / ton professionals say, if CF1909 reaches the expected point, the strategy should be to open more positions. At the end of August, the pressure of warehouse receipts highlighted that Zheng cotton still faces pressure from the supply side, and will continue to maintain a trend of sideways shocks if downstream consumption is inhibited and it is difficult to recover significantly. Another possibility is that it will create a new low.

Of course, how the price of the disk will work will ultimately be judged according to the actual operation results. The good news for the bulls is that the current phenomenon of shutting down in the textile industry is widespread. Once accumulated to a certain extent and transmitted to the upper reaches, there will be an extreme market, but this process will be very long.