How Is The Follow-Up Trend Of PET Bottle Flakes After The Raw Materials Have Gone Up And Down?

After the G20 summit, trade relations between China and the United States eased and the market atmosphere improved. The trend of polyester market is strong, and the price of bottle film market has continuously risen. But after a round of carnival, the international oil price slump in July 2nd, the PTA night plate down, and polyester production and marketing drag down, which seems to indicate the end of this round of soaring prices, so will the follow-up trend of PET bottles continue to rise?

Upstream support is still in short term.

Recently, during this period, PTA rose sharply. However, 2 days and nights, the price of PTA opened up a downward trend. The futures market sharply reduced 390 thousand positions, and the fluctuation was more intense. The 3 day market did not achieve a substantial rebound, showing a slight concussion. We believe that the current good news is being gradually digested by the market, and that the price of PTA continues to go up or is limited. However, the positive impact of the macro emotional improvement and the basic resonance is still in short supply, so the short-term support is still there.

Ethylene glycol is subject to uncertainties, and the overall supply is increasing. Short term ethylene glycol market is expected to see shock consolidation.

The industry is still in the peak season.

At present, the PET bottle industry is in the traditional demand season. With the recent favorable upstream, the factory shipments have increased, and most factories are in low inventory. The oversold phenomenon still exists and the factory mentality is steady. As of July 2nd, the operation rate of polyester bottle sheet industry has remained at around 81.83%, because the supply side is relatively stable and supplies well in the peak season.

Demand has decreased compared with the same period in previous years.

Demand side, compared with the same period in previous years, the demand has decreased, which is a drag on the trend of polyester bottle. Recently, in the wake of the market noise, the downstream demand has not seen a marked improvement. The reason is that the downstream enterprises have already stockpiled sufficient raw material stocks in the earlier stage, and the downstream is cautious and wait oriented.

To sum up, the supply and demand of raw materials PTA market is tight and the cost is well supported. Although the number of new orders in the terminal market is not ideal, however, under the condition of high operating rate and high inventory, the support for the downstream needs is still strong, and the stock of polyester PET factory is very low, and no new production capacity can be released in July, and the supply side is still stable.

On the whole, polyester PET market should be paid close attention to the change of macro level and the fluctuation of start-up rate of terminal plant. (source: LIAN, Zhuo Chuang)