The Price Of Grey Cloth Has Slowed Down, And The Trend Of Inventory Control Has Slowed Down.

The two big news this week detonated the textile market.

In June 18th, the Fuehrer of China and the United States exchanged phone calls to rekindle the hope of the market again.

Geopolitical re fermentation, oil tanker attack, UAV was shot down, directly pulling the price of crude oil from the bottom. As of 20 days, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in July rose 2.89 US dollars, closing at 56.65 US dollars per barrel, or 5.38%. Geopolitical tension provoke the market nerves, coupled with polyester products with the first few waves of goods, low inventory, strong price increases.

At the end of June, it is still facing the restriction of the 300 billion issue of trade war.

In June 18th, the news of the first exchange call of the US dollar made the market rekindle hope. The possibility of a new round of tariff knife falling down in the textile and garment market has been the most direct benefit in the first half of the textile and garment market. Although the results have not yet been announced, the impact of US tariffs on textile foreign trade enterprises is real, especially those with direct trade with the United States.

After the tariff was imposed last year, the vast majority of enterprises could better spanfer the tariff cost through the negotiation price with the purchase, plus the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, so the overall effect was not great. However, the negative impact of this tariff increase to 25% on this year is generally greater than the 10% tariff added in 2018.

Jiang Zong, the head of a textile enterprise in Wujiang, said that if tariffs were increased, the docking list would have a direct impact, because the tariffs in Vietnam and India were low. Some of the US bills would be spanferred to India and Vietnam, and Chinese orders would be lost. In the early days, according to market participants, products that could further levy tariffs within 300 billion US dollars were forecast to decline to 30%-40% at the US export orders year-on-year.

In addition, most of the sample companies said that although the company did not export directly to the US, the escalation of Sino US frictions would have a certain impact on the whole grey fabric market. The demand for the terminal decreased, and the market orders correspondingly reduced. A telephone call at night late this week made the textile foreign trader breathe a sigh of relief, but faced with Trump's two faces, at the end of June, he still faced with the restriction of the 300 billion issue of trade war. Therefore, this foreign trade "black swan" is still more rational.

"The phone is ringing, gold is two!" It is not too early to say whether the market style should be changed. At present, the market is still affected by emergencies and fermented, from PTA, polyester filament to gray fabric market showed varying degrees of overfall rebound signs:

1, low price selling convergence, grey cloth price declines slowed down;

In the early stage, we have been discussing the weak market this year. In addition to the impact of poor demand, the production capacity of conventional products has surged, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand of the market. It is crucial for many textile bosses to build factories in the past two years. It is reported that in Northern Jiangsu, there are many manufacturers who have not received orders after the Qingming Festival, and there have been stocks for about 2 months. The market began to have a low price dumping phenomenon in late May, though it did not develop in large areas, but to a certain extent, it depressed the price of gray cloth in the local market, and also made it harder for manufacturers to operate.

Tian Zong of Wujiang Yonghua Textile Co., Ltd., said: "most of the grey cloth in Northern Jiangsu is shipped to Shengze and Keqiao, and then sold to the local market. Driven by the rising atmosphere of raw materials, manufacturers of low price shipments also began to close their hands, ready to wait for action. It is reported that there is also a phenomenon of price increase in inventory purchase.

2, confidence gradually recaptured, which helps to speed up the order.

For market participants, there has always been a saying that confidence is more important than gold. This year's market is actually not as pessimistic as we might imagine, but many industry chain members have lost confidence in the market and are afraid to start off easily, resulting in the purchase from terminal clothing to finished products to grey cloth to raw materials. Bottom-up procurement is prudent. Generally, there will not be a lot of hoarding to gamble on the market. However, at present, this phenomenon has improved. The owners of sample enterprises generally say that the trade market in July will be better.

Chen, general manager of Hui Ye Textile Co., Ltd., said: "in previous years, it was the worst in June and improved in July, and this year should be the same." Wu Jun of Nantong Jie Chuang Textile Co., Ltd. said that in the near future, the market will be better in July than in June, but the possibility of large orders will suddenly be lower. Yonghua textile Tian also thinks that the demand of terminal clothing market will directly affect the next order, but the market can not be bad. The market in July will be better than now.

Textile bosses' confidence restored, to a certain extent, will boost the atmosphere of the market. Although the effect is not yet obvious, traders are beginning to purchase orders for conventional chemical fiber fabrics based on expectations for the July market.

"Inventory" becomes the sword of Damour, which restricts the trend of the market.

"The main thing is to look at stocks. Only when stocks are reduced to a certain extent, will the market begin to really warm up." In the course of the investigation, Chen Dun, a textile owner who produces polyester and taffy, said, "at present, the stock in the factory is relatively high. It has been in storage for 1 months. This is the number that has never been reached in the past two years. So, while ensuring normal operation, we will first consider going to stock instead of protecting profits. Now the profit margins are very low, and some 190 polyester taffes have already lost money."

Since this year, "high inventory and high start-up" has become a new feature of the industry, especially in June, weaving inventory has been up to 42 days, the highest value in recent years, which led to the resistance of the market. "At present, the hot market of raw materials does not mean that the whole industry chain is better. The key is whether the demand can really get up, and that many stocks in the market can not be consumed." Shen Zong, who has been struggling for more than 10 years in Wujiang textile industry, said.

On the one hand, many textile bosses have better expectations for July. On the other hand, they are also worried about how their inventories are getting higher and higher. "This year, we will not easily start work, because as long as the market starts, inventory is still relatively easy." Chen Zong said in Shengze area.

There is a common saying in the textile market, that is, five poor, six, and seven turning over. At present, the textile market has entered a more delicate interval. The short turn of market does not indicate the change of general direction. At the moment, the establishment of the bottom of the stage or the beginning of the abyss still needs substantial promotion. Therefore, textile people need to treat the heat of the market calmly, and do not blindly and optimistically operate.