Apocalypse Of China Textile Great Pformation

History is doomed to repeat itself.

Lengthening the time span and reviewing the development of textile industry in the past thirty years is actually a bumpy and tortuous development history.

Although the reasons are complex, the main reason is the interaction between policy and external market.

At present, the domestic textile enterprises once again stand on the crossroads, whether they are in the "silent outbreak" or "in silence," and whether the future fate of textile enterprises is still in their hands.

Driven by internal causes, the reform of state-owned enterprises in 90s was bold and continuous.

Taking history as a mirror is for better progress.

In the past thirty years of development, the first great change occurred in the 90s of last century, when the storm came fiercely.

In November 3, 1992, the Chongqing intermediate people's court formally declared that the bankruptcy of the Chongqing general knitting factory marked the deepening of the reform of the merger and reorganization of state-owned enterprises.

In 1996, the national bankruptcy pilot cities expanded to 56, reaching 111 cities in 1997, and the bankruptcy work in 2000 was basically pushed away.

The historical traffic flow is rolling forward. In the tide of the merger of state-owned enterprises, textile enterprises began to appear as the leading role.

At the beginning of 1998, the State Council issued the notice of the State Council on deepening the reform of textile industry and adjusting the structure to solve the problems related to the work of turning losses into account. The reform target was put forward formally: from 1998 onwards, 3 years or so should be used to eliminate and eliminate 10 million spindles of backward cotton ingots, and 1 million 200 thousand workers should be shunted and laid off. By 2000, the whole industry will be able to turn losses into profits.

The government's ingots plan was completed in batches. In 1998, the eastern coastal areas basically completed the compression and elimination of 4 million 800 thousand spindles of backward cotton ingots, shunted 600 thousand laid-off workers and reduced the loss by 3 billion yuan. In 1999, other regions basically completed the compression and elimination of backward cotton ingots and 5 million 200 thousand spindles. In 2000, the task of compressing and eliminating backward cotton ingots and shunting laid-off workers was completed in 2000.

The current wave of mergers is a strategic reorganization of state-owned enterprises in the process of establishing and improving the socialist market economic system through the flow and reorganization of stock assets.

It can be said that the internal cause of this major reform is the key, more of which is the revolution of state-owned enterprises, and the reform is unprecedented.

The pattern of textile enterprises has undergone great changes after the reform, and the vitality is increasing.

After more than ten years of reform pains, the textile industry has gradually formed a new pattern of "national retreat and democratic progress".

According to the data released by relevant media, the number of state-owned enterprises in the textile industry decreased from 1754 in 2003 to 1175 in 2008, while the number of textile enterprises above Designated Size in the country soared from 14863 in 2003 to 33133 in 2008, an increase of more than 100%.

The background of this period is China's accession to WTO at the end of 2001, and the export of labor intensive textile industry has become the main force of China's exports.

If we did not enter WTO and embrace such a broad market, I'm afraid the expansion of private textile enterprises will not be so big and fast.

The price of cotton has gone through roller coaster market.

Of course, with the rise and fall of textile enterprises, cotton prices are constantly writing "waltz" up and down.

Along with the wave of mergers and acquisitions, the downstream consumption has dropped significantly, and cotton prices have dropped.

We can see from the graph that cotton consumption has begun to decline gradually after 92 years, which is closely related to the merger and reorganization of enterprises.

Despite the lack of systematic and professional price data to support time, the supply of excess demand will inevitably lead to a fall in cotton prices from the perspective of equilibrium theory.

Of course, after the pformation of the Phoenix Nirvana, the Chinese textile industry began to soar and sing all the way in 2000. Under the premise of steady increase in cotton production, consumption has seen explosive growth, and cotton prices have opened a long period of slow bull market.

Driven by external factors, the domestic cotton textile industry will usher in a major adjustment.

After the rapid development, China's textile enterprises are facing second major tests, but they are different from their own lives in the 90s of last century. This is the external factor that plays a key role.

Downstream consumption will be subject to long-term suppression, and cotton prices may remain low for a long time.

Cotton prices opened the curtain on the decline. Zheng cotton's main contract fell to 13000 yuan / ton near the end of the temporary decline.

It is hard to imagine that cotton prices will perform well during the great shock period of cotton spinning industry.

Therefore, in the short term, and even for a long period of time, it is very difficult for cotton prices to improve, especially to return to normal orbit.

Note: This article is abridged.