Under The Downward Risk Of Cost, Will PTA Fall Below The 5000 Threshold?

Recently, in the panic of the polyester market caused by the collapse of the international oil price, PTA futures dropped sharply.

At the present stage, there is an incremental expectation at the supply side. However, the demand for terminal is weak, and the inventory of grey fabric continues to accumulate. At present, the macro environment is complex, international oil prices continue to drop sharply, and the risk of downside risks is large. PTA will not rule out the possibility of the 5000 pass in the near future.

Cost side support collapse

In the early June, international crude oil prices continued to plummet and Asian PX prices dropped sharply.

The crude oil terminal market came out of the US delay in sanctions against the petrochemical industry in Iran, combating the already fragile confidence of the market, then issued a tax threat to Mexico, and announced that it had terminated the GSP treatment in India since June 5th. Trump's tariff threat showed that "no country is safe", which further exacerbated worries about the global economy and oil demand, and eventually led to a sharp fall in the crude oil market.

The supply side is expected to increase.

On the supply side, the supply capacity of the chemical plant in Sichuan will continue to increase in June.

At present, futures are in a state of deep discount, and the intent of large factories is very clear. At present, the operation rate of PTA plant is around 87%, and the inventory of PTA manufacturers is about 3.5 days. We believe that the current negative expectation of the price may still be concentrated on demand side, which will also become the main determinant of TA6 monthly storage level.

Demand side return to bland

By the end of May 30th, the average operation of the polyester industry was 86.74%, a decline of 0.84% compared with the ring ratio, which led to the decline in the operating rate of the industry. The reason was that although the 200 thousand tons of Tiansheng plant resumed operation, there was also a reduction of 30% in Hongtai and 200 thousand tons in warp and weft maintenance. Therefore, the polyester industry started to decline slightly compared with the previous week.

To sum up, the price of upstream crude oil and PX has dropped sharply. There is no obvious maintenance plan for the PTA plant. Only the Luoyang Petrochemical 325 thousand tons / year PTA plant and the 900 thousand ton / year PTA device of the Peng Wei Petrochemical Company are expected to restart. It is expected that the construction of PTA will be raised and the supply will continue to increase.

From the terminal market, after the replenishment stage, it takes time to consume raw materials inventory, and polyester production and marketing will enter a downturn stage. Therefore, the short term PTA market is expected to be weak and will not exclude the risk of continuing downhill.