Tight Supply Of Caprolactam And Weakened Demand

After the middle of April, domestic caprolactam faced serious downside pressure. The factory took the lead in reacting, greatly reducing the operating load of the equipment, and the overall supply was tightened, but in this round of confrontation, the demand of the downstream polymerization plant was weakened more directly, and the price of caprolactam was still unable to withstand the light market demand.

按照往年情況來(lái)看，國(guó)內(nèi)己內(nèi)酰胺3月逐步進(jìn)入需求淡季，價(jià)格進(jìn)入下行通道，今年市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)確實(shí)晚一些，但進(jìn)入4月中旬后，終端需求持續(xù)偏淡，下游聚合工廠庫(kù)存壓力增加，頻頻通過(guò)降負(fù)來(lái)緩解庫(kù)存壓力，原料接盤意愿開(kāi)始逐步減弱，而此時(shí)己內(nèi)酰胺價(jià)格仍維持14500元/噸左右運(yùn)行，相較于實(shí)際來(lái)看，這個(gè)價(jià)格確實(shí)有些偏高，為在行情偏淡下穩(wěn)定價(jià)格，中石化掛牌繼續(xù)與上月持平，部分工廠開(kāi)始降負(fù)檢修，最低甚至僅維持5.5成附近水平，其中：南京東方一條20萬(wàn)噸/年裝置雖于4月底重啟，但在節(jié)后由于裝置問(wèn)題再次停車檢修，短期內(nèi)難以恢復(fù)，整體負(fù)荷維持4-5成水平運(yùn)行；浙江巨化由于蒸汽和液氨供應(yīng)等問(wèn)題，開(kāi)工負(fù)荷回落至5成左右后逐步回升；陽(yáng)煤太化裝置由于環(huán)保等原因，4月22日左右裝置短停檢修，目前已恢復(fù)滿負(fù)荷生產(chǎn)；錦江科技20萬(wàn)噸/年裝置4月20日

From the beginning of the 25 day's operation, the vehicle was restarted and resumed for 7-8 days. Now, the operation of the 350 thousand tons / year device of Yuli Tianchen Yulong is still running at a low load. The 200 thousand ton / year new line of Shandong West Shandong has been shut down since April 29th, and is scheduled to be restarted in May 14th. Jiangsu, Haili 200 thousand tons / year plant is going to stop maintenance in March 26th. It is difficult to resume the 400 thousand ton / year installation of Fujian Shen Yuan in April 16th.

Although the overall supply has basically dropped to a new low in recent years, the demand for the downstream industry chain has continued to drop, and the atmosphere of raw material receiving is depressed. The caprolactam factory has a unstable mentality and a continuous decline. It is expected that the current market will continue until early June, and the price will drop to about 12500 yuan per ton.