Ethylene Glycol Is Very Entangled. Is It Necessary To Raise Prices In May?
Since October 2018, the market price of ethylene glycol has entered the downward channel. We have all acquiesced. We feel that we have made money in the first 9 months, and we have lost a few months. The result is that in May 2019, when we say that the peak demand season for the downstream demand in March is going up, we have to raise the price.
At present, there are many overhaul enterprises, including many enterprises overhauling in May, and the supply is dropping. So, is the price of ethylene glycol going up and entangled?
One Enterprise supply
Table 14 monthly glycol repair list
Unit: 10000 tons, day.
Enterprise name | capacity | Date of maintenance | Four Monthly maintenance days | Four Monthly loss |
Anhui Huaihua | Ten | 2018.4.28- undetermined | Thirty | Zero point nine |
Inner Mongolia Yi Gao | Twelve | 4.7-4.30 | Twenty-three | Zero point eight three |
Henan energy (Luoyang) | Twenty | 2018.12.9- undetermined | Thirty | One point eight |
Henan energy (Puyang) | Twenty | 4.2-4.30 | Twenty-eight | One point six eight |
Xinjiang Tianye | Twenty-five | 4.25-4.30 | Five | Zero point three eight |
New Hang energy | Thirty-six | 4.25-4.30 | Five | Zero point five four |
Yangmei group (Ping Ding) | Twenty | 4.1-4.25 | Twenty-five | One point five |
Yangmei group (Shouyang) | Twenty-two | 4.20-4.30 | Ten | Zero point six six |
Xinjiang Tian Ying | Fifteen | 4.26-4.30 | Four | Zero point one eight |
Liaoyang petrochemical | Twenty | Conversion EO ratio 1:19 | Thirty-one | One point six seven |
Shanghai petrochemical | Twenty-three | Conversion to EO | Twenty-eight | One point nine three |
Total | Two hundred and twenty-three | Twelve point zero seven |
Source: lung Chung
Table 25 monthly glycol repair list
Unit: 10000 tons, day.
Enterprise name | capacity | Date of maintenance | Five Monthly maintenance days | Five Monthly loss |
Anhui Huaihua | Ten | 2018.4.28- undetermined | Thirty-one | Zero point nine three |
Lihua Yiwei chemical | Twenty | 5.1-5.31 | Thirty-one | One point eight six |
Inner Mongolia Yi Gao | Twelve | 5.1-5.7 | Seven | Zero point two five |
Henan energy (Luoyang) | Twenty | 2018.12.9- undetermined | Thirty-one | One point eight six |
Henan energy (Puyang) | Twenty | 5.1-5.7 | Seven | Zero point four two |
Henan energy (Anyang) | Twenty | 5.7-5.31 | Twenty-five | One point five |
Xinjiang Tianye | Twenty-five | 5.1-5.15 | Fifteen | One point one three |
Yangmei group (Ping Ding) | Twenty | 5.1-5.7 | Seven | Zero point four two |
Yangmei group (Shouyang) | Twenty-two | 5.1-5.20 | Twenty | One point three two |
Yangmei group (Shenzhou) | Twenty-two | 5.1-5.31 | Thirty-one | Two point zero five |
Xinjiang Tian Ying | Fifteen | 5.1-5.20 | Twenty | Zero point nine |
Liaoyang petrochemical | Twenty | Conversion EO ratio 1:19 | Thirty-one | One point six seven |
Shanghai petrochemical | Twenty-three | Conversion to EO | Twenty-eight | One point nine three |
Total | Two hundred and forty-nine | Sixteen point two four |
Source: lung Chung
From the above 2 tables, it was learned that the overhaul in April involved 2 million 230 thousand tons of capacity and 120 thousand and 700 tons of loss. In May, the inspection involved 2 million 490 thousand tons of capacity and 162 thousand and 400 tons of loss. In May, the overhaul was more than 260 thousand tons in April, and the loss was more than 41 thousand and 700 tons.
The bad news is that the supply will increase sharply after the overhaul in June.
2. Port situation
Up to now, the inventory of East China main port is about 124.7 million tons, which is decreasing slowly (snail climbing potential). It is estimated that on April 25th -5 4, East China port is expected to arrive at 208 thousand tons, of which 130 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 27 thousand tons for Taicang terminal, 36 thousand tons for Ningbo, 5 thousand tons for Jiangyin, and 10 thousand tons for Shanghai.
Compared with previous years, the volume of circumspect Hong Kong decreased significantly, which is good news.
3. Polyester demand
Up to now, the production capacity of polyester is 56 million 240 thousand tons, the start-up rate is 91.87%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is about 1 million 463 thousand and 900 tons.
No matter whether the demand for polyester in the later stage is declining, let's calculate the balance between supply and demand according to the present value.
In May, compared with April, the production volume was reduced by 41 thousand and 700 tons, and the estimated output was 667 thousand and 100 tons. Compared with last year and this year, the estimated import volume was about 850 thousand tons. The antifreeze and unsaturated resin consumption was about 60 thousand tons. According to the group data calculation, it was in short supply, but it was only less than 10 thousand tons.
This group of data is for reference only.
Ethylene glycol is very entangled. Should we increase the price?
Conclusion: the plan is not as fast as the change, but the facts are all brutal. The polyester terminal has gradually entered the traditional off-season. The current terminal orders are not good, the profit is not good, the grey fabric inventory is rising, some factories in the May 1st factory have a plan to stop production, and the purchase intention of raw materials is not good. Recently, we have seen the polyester stock go up, forcing the price reduction promotion to deal with the anticipation of the May 1 warehouse. Generally speaking, under the condition of two supply and demand, the polyester raw material will inhibit the upper space, and the ethylene glycol will probably continue to remain weak, and the short rebound space will be limited.
Ps Futures
1, the Boolean belt opens the mouth downward, the lower rail is leveled, operates on the middle track to try the empty single.
2, K-line combination, low phagocytic form, there is the possibility of rebound.
3, MACD oversold, although the volume of 0 axis below, but the energy column gradually weakened, there is the possibility of upward repair.
Conclusion:
EG06 contract short-term continuation of weak finishing, concerned about the 4500 front-line situation, the operation of short-term 4500-4690 interval pactions, in the long run to maintain high throwing ideas.
If there is a hedging phenomenon, pay attention to rebound or short selling opportunities.
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