Can Cotton Price Break Through Technical Resistance? Pay Close Attention To The Progress Of Sino US Trade Negotiations

In March, ICE futures rebounded strongly, the main contract rose about 400 points, but at the beginning of April, the market began to show some decline. The reason was that the recent good news did not let cotton prices go up further, which disappointed traders.

Last week's US cotton export weekly showed that the signing and shipment of cotton textiles increased significantly in the previous week, and the number of intentions on Friday was much lower than expected. The manufacturing data of China on Monday also improved.

However, under the influence of Sino US trade war, global economic growth dropped from 3.5% to 2.7%.

Overall, cotton supply in the new year is really large. If USDA's area forecast, normal yield (good soil condition in Texas this year) and average yield per square meter in the past five years are calculated, the end of US cotton end inventory may increase to 5 million 900 thousand packs, which will be the highest level since 2008/09.

With the improvement of technology graphics, some funds in recent years have changed from net to net. This is also the reason why the price rebounded after the fall in April 2nd.

After all, cotton has not been planted in the field, and the Sino US trade negotiations have not ended.

In April 2nd, the ICE futures contract rose to a new high in December, closing prices also hit a new high. Traders continued to buy under the guidance of the area report.

This year Easter is relatively late, wet and cold weather may last longer, cotton sowing may be delayed, new cotton is also more vulnerable to adverse weather conditions at the end of growth, so once China and the United States reach an agreement, taking into account the US cotton area is lower than expected, then in 2019, before the end of sowing, US cotton production forecast may provide support for the market.

In April 2nd, the May contract (old contract) continued to slightly lower, and the intraday fell sharply, but after recovering most of the land lost, the market expects good news from the US cotton export weekly on Thursday. If the US cotton export contract and shipment continue to maintain a strong momentum, the US cotton exports will continue to be close to the average of nearly 92% years in the past five years, and the market is concerned about whether China will maintain a net increase in the total volume of contracts this year and next year.

In April 2nd, investors paid close attention to the progress of Sino US trade negotiations, and ICE futures encountered strong technical resistance.

The cotton contract in May fell 0.09 cents or 0.12%, and the settlement price was 77.27 cents per pound.

The contract paction range is 76.47-77.37 cents.

Investors also need to pay attention to weather developments. Floods in the Midwest of the United States threaten to interfere with farming, and there may be a spring storm.

Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group, Chicago, said: "consolidation of the market, the price rose to 78 cents after strong resistance, and today some gains."

Scoville said: "we pay close attention to Sino US trade negotiations and hope for the best results.

People expect something to happen, but nothing is happening now. "