How Can The Outlook For The Loss Of Ethylene Glycol Be Expected?

Ethylene glycol futures have reached a new low since the listing. The spot price is also the lowest in the past 3 years. The loss is serious, the port inventory is high, and the enterprise starts to be high.

Let me take you all over to review the seriousness of the current situation.

Futures:

From above, we can see that according to the 33 principle, it is basically regarded as an effective breakthrough support position, breaking 3.58%, and technology to 4600 yuan / ton.

Near the weekend, the futures market plummeted to close at 4.18%.

On the basic level, if there is no reduction in production, inventory reduction, or downstream production, or other unexpected positive effects, the current inventory will be under high pressure, and the tax reduction in April will result in a sell-off phenomenon, which will basically go to 4600 yuan / ton.

Maybe not overnight, but always touch it.

Goods in stock:

Price comparison chart of ethylene glycol in East China in 2015-2019 years

Source: lung Chung

During the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester load will decrease seasonally, and the downstream demand for ethylene glycol is poor. But in 3-4 months, the traditional demand season, the enterprises "took for granted" did not reduce or lighten the burden, but improved the operation and increased production, confirming that the first quarter of ethylene glycol stock rate increased.

Enterprises have overlooked one point, the new capacity increased, the overall supply increased, the output in the first quarter of 2019 increased by 200 thousand tons / month compared with 2018, and when the cost of re importing resources was relatively low, imports increased unabated. The spot market oversupply situation appeared, and did not appear as usual in 2018.

2015-2019 years comparison of East China main port inventory with ethylene glycol

In March 28th, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 127 thousand tons.

Among them, 89.5 tons in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 10 thousand tons per annulus, a daily average delivery of some 8000 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 93 thousand tons of Ningbo, an increase of 1 thousand tons per annulus, 110 thousand tons of Shanghai and Changshu, a reduction of 7 thousand tons per annulus, 79 thousand tons of Taicang, 13 thousand tons of monthly reduction, and an average daily shipment of about 3000 tons in the mainstream reservoir area, an increase of 3000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou.

In March 29th, it is expected that East China ports will arrive 248 thousand tons in the next week, of which 120 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 60 thousand tons for Taicang wharf, 15 thousand tons for Ningbo, 20 thousand tons for Jiangyin, 33 thousand tons for Shanghai.

Conclusion: the futures technology side will continue to go down, and the supply of spot market is increasing. If there is no good news to boost, then enterprises will continue to lose money and lose to a certain extent.

It is obvious that entering the April will be very obvious. Some enterprises have already released the overhaul plan, so we will wait and see.