Profit Analysis Of Xinjiang Cotton Processing Enterprises In 2018/19: Loss Of 400-500 Yuan Per Ton Of Hand Picked Cotton In Southern Xinjiang

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of March 15, 2019, the total sales of lint 3 million 56 thousand tons in the whole country decreased by 181 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, of which 2 million 489 thousand tons of lint were sold in Xinjiang, accounting for 49.68% of the total processing volume of Xinjiang cotton this year.

Industry analysis, resulting in the slow progress of sales of Xinjiang cotton, one of which is the signing and sale of cotton soldiers in 2018/19, slowing down to the mainland in the previous two years, and the other part of the southern Xinjiang cotton picking machine, because of its large impurities, low fracture strength and high horse value, was dragged down by the cotton mills and traders in and out of Xinjiang.

How about the profit of cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang this year as of the end of March?

The author discussed hand picking cotton in the southern Xinjiang and cotton picking in Northern Xinjiang.

First, the acquisition period of hand picked cotton in the southern Xinjiang is mostly concentrated in late September 2018 to mid January 2019. The highest purchase price of 40% lint seed cotton is 7.50-7.60 yuan / kg, the lowest 6.60-6.70 yuan / kg (grade 31, length 28mm and above), and the annual average purchase price is 7.05-7.10 yuan / kg (the median price is 7.08 yuan / kg).

The sale price of cottonseed is concentrated at 1.50-1.60 yuan / kg (1.55 yuan / kg), which is equivalent to 15800 yuan / ton of gross weight of lint, plus the short storage in the territory, the cost of treasury and five months' financial cost (November -3 months). The total cost of selling lint is 16750 yuan / ton.

Even if calculated by four months' financial cost, the combined cost will reach 16600 yuan / ton (due to differences in financing and loan interest rates).

Of course, a large part of Southern Xinjiang ginning plants adopt the strategy of selling side by side, minimizing risk and purchasing capital pressure. The cost of actual sale of lint is estimated at 16200-16300 yuan / ton.

Since November 2018, the delivery price of the 3128/3129 grade (broken strength 27.5CN/tex and above) hand picked cotton is 16200 yuan / ton, the lowest level is 15500 yuan / ton, and most of the time is stable at 15700-15900 yuan / ton (gross weight).

In mid March, the quotation and paction price all returned to 16000 yuan / ton. Therefore, combined with the sales progress and sales time of hand picked cotton in southern Xinjiang, the author judged that the average gross weight of 3128/3129 class sold was priced at 15800-15900 yuan / ton.

From the above simple calculation, we can see that the average hand picked cotton in the southern Xinjiang is about 400-500 yuan per ton.

North Xinjiang cotton picking 40% cotton coat highest purchase price 6.60-6.70 yuan / kg, the lowest purchase price 5.70-5.80 yuan / kg (level 31), combined with the listing of resources, it is estimated that the average purchase price of 40% lint is about 6.10-6.15 yuan / kg (6.12 yuan / kg); cottonseed price in 10-12 months is priced at 1.50-1.60 yuan / kg (taking the middle price 1.55 yuan / kg), converted 3128/3129 grade lint direct cost 14000-14100 yuan / ton (including processing fees).

At present, the comprehensive cost of unsold machine picking cotton is about 14100+200 (short Plus + +600) (=14900 four yuan), =14900 yuan / ton, if the five month financial cost reaches 15050 yuan / ton (there are differences between financing and loan interest rates).

The average sales cost of the sold lint is estimated to be about 14700-14800 yuan per ton.

Since the launch of new cotton in 2018/19, the price of gross weight of 3128/3129 grade cotton picking has dropped from 16000 yuan / ton to 15200-15300 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 15700-15800 yuan / ton at present. The average price of the cotton mill is 15500-15600 yuan / ton (gross weight).

Based on the above two points, the lint profit of the cotton picking plant in 2018/19 is about 700-900 yuan / ton.

If the CF1905 contract is more than 15500, the profit is slightly higher.

The above calculation is slightly different from the actual situation of some enterprises, for reference only.