Is The Spring Of Cotton Textile Industry Coming?

Since March, a report on "prefer to send express not to enter the factory" has attracted a lot of attention, and has attracted the attention of the representatives of the two sessions. In spite of the problem of "labor shortage" and "recruitment fee rising", the recent national related favorable policies have been issued frequently, the impact of Sino US negotiations has weakened, and the overall environment of the cotton textile market has changed.

What are the factors that support the cotton spinning Market?

What do we need to pay attention to?

Deepening VAT reform and reducing VAT 3%

Deepening the reform of value-added tax will reduce the current 16% tax rate to 13% in manufacturing and other industries.

Some agencies expect that it can save about 200 yuan per ton for enterprises.

Superposition of banks, targeted reduction, small and micro enterprises loan support, reduce the enterprise electricity price and other multi-faceted benefit policy, more practical and practical to reduce the cash flow pressure of enterprises, improve the cash flow of enterprises, and inject new impetus to the enterprise guarantee and active market.

These initiatives have brought strength to the market.

The Sino US trade talks weakened and overall expectations improved.

The trade friction between China and the United States has lasted for nearly 10 months, and the impact of the market has been gradually digested. Textile enterprises have their own coping strategies. Domestic enterprises are basically running steadily, and only part of the enterprises with export business may be affected.

It is understood that China's textile and clothing imports and exports grew steadily for two consecutive years, but the export volume of textile and clothing in February 2019 decreased significantly compared with the same period last year.

Some agencies say that it may be the risk of Spring Festival holidays and enterprises' evading tariffs, which may not reflect the recent real export situation.

Cotton yarn futures regulations new activity is expected to enhance

In March 4th, Zheng Shang announced the revision of cotton yarn futures business rules, including the substantial expansion of the deliverable main body, the improvement of the premium discount standard and the shortening of the validity period of the warehouse receipt.

With professional analysis, this amendment not only facilitates the participation of enterprises in pactions, meets the diversified needs of enterprises, but also solves the problems of pressure from warehouse receipts.

The market is expected to further improve cotton yarn futures activity in the further improvement of cotton yarn futures business.

Printing and dyeing orders recovery price rise

Since the beginning of March, the news of the revival of printing and dyeing factories has been coming continuously in Guangdong and Keqiao, and the market is relatively lively.

Traders in Guangdong also said: "the list is getting more and more recently". The printing and dyeing enterprises in Fujian area started the first gun of price rise after the Spring Festival. Although the cost increase is a factor that can not be ignored, the market supply is less than the demand. The price increase may also be a market behavior. At the same time, it can basically explain the activity of cloth market consumption.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the storage of enterprises is 34.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days, a decrease of 15.1 days compared with the previous three years.

The reform of the import quota of cotton is worth considering.

In recent years, there has been more and more reform on the import quota of cotton. Under the current situation of cotton production and demand contradiction, it is imperative to increase the effective supply of cotton.

With the decline of reserve cotton stocks, whether the quota should be issued and the demand for small and medium textile enterprises should be taken into account when the quota is issued, the more effective quota implementation mechanism should be expected and considered.

There is no need to overread the conjecture of cotton reserves.

Recently, there are various conjectures about the storage of cotton in the market. This reflects the market's demand for cotton reserves and the recognition and dependence of regulation policies.

Xiaobian believes that the role of reserve cotton in stabilizing the market will not change whether or not it is launched.

From this point of view, there is no need to overlook the conjectures about cotton reserves.

Is the spring of cotton spinning coming on schedule?

Domestic cotton yarn qualitative supply exceeds demand.

Customs data show that the total imports of pure cotton yarn in January 2019 amounted to 156 thousand and 100 tons.

From the point of order before trade and after the festival, the total amount of imported cotton yarn in February is more than that in January.

Since the Spring Festival, the order of textile mills has been relatively slow, and the traditional peak season is not obvious. The current supply and demand pattern of cotton yarn can be characterized as oversupply.

The domestic cotton yarn factory's comprehensive start-up rate returned to 56.9%, lower than the same period in 2018 (59.6%) and 2017 (61.5%). It is expected that the starting rate of 3 to May will still rise, and the supply of cotton yarn will continue to increase.

Import yarn supply will increase

At present, the import yarn port stock is 75 thousand and 100 tons, lower than the same level in 2018 (81 thousand tons) and 2017 (95 thousand tons).

Although the current inventory level can be oriented to a normal low level, the import volume of the imported yarn will continue to increase and the substitution and impact will be made for the domestic yarn because the order of the traders will arrive in March before the Spring Festival.

It can be seen that the current supply and demand pattern of cotton yarn market is still oversupply, and the price of gauze is temporarily difficult to rise. The pmission of industrial chain is hindered by grey cloth links, and it is unfavorable to cotton yarn and cotton short-term replenishment.

But 2019 is the last year for Xinjiang cotton target price to be implemented for three years. The target price setting this year will have a far-reaching impact on the future development of cotton market.

I believe that the policy of boosting the healthy development of the cotton textile market will gradually come down and solve the current situation. In the long run, the cotton textile industry is still worth looking forward to.