PTA Suddenly Fell, But Downside Or Limited.

Since January, under the premise that crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, the price of PTA has been rising from below 5600 yuan / ton, and the price of PX has exceeded 6600 yuan / ton at the end of January, maintaining high volatility before and after the Spring Festival.

Tuesday night market, the market opened higher and lower, Wednesday continued to increase position decline, PTA closed close to the lowest point in the day, compared with the opening price fell over 300 yuan / ton. Then what will happen after the sudden fall?

Cost support is still in existence.

The core factors affecting the price of PTA can never be ignored by PX. At present, the price of PX is very strong, and it also supports PTA price. Before February 13th, the price of PTA's main contract climbed to above 6700, and the processing price difference could reach 1000 yuan / ton, and the profit was considerable.

In the vicinity of 6400 - 6500, the processing price difference is about 800 yuan / ton, which is still profitable for the larger PTA plant (low cost of scale effect), while some devices with high cost of water and electricity are close to their cost price.

Therefore, although the PTA basic supply and demand relationship is bad, if the PX price can be maintained at a high level, the space under PTA will still be limited.

Downstream production and marketing is light.

From the spot market, during the Spring Festival, there was a continuous accumulation of raw materials, and the polyester repair equipment in the early stage was restarted. The polyester filament industry started to increase to 83.46%, while the weaving industry started to increase by 1% to 36%.

Today, Fuhai has set up a 4 million 500 thousand ton / year PTA device to increase its load according to plan. The restart of Yangzi Petrochemical plant caused some market worries about supply pressure.

Short term or adjustment based

Overall, the PTA price before the Spring Festival is running high, providing a space for the downward price. After the festival, the demand for PTA has not yet been released. It is difficult to sustain the high price of the price.

Looking ahead, PTA will still have room for adjustment in 2019 when the purchasing intention of the lower reaches is raised, but the polyester end start is expected to increase steadily. In the next two weeks, the terminal weaving will also gradually resume. At present, both PTA and pet end stocks are relatively low.