After Market Break, Can Polyester Filament Continue To Be Brilliant In 2019?

Looking at the operation of polyester filament industry in 2018, it can be found from many aspects, such as price, profit, load, inventory and so on, that the trend of reverse trend is the first half of 2018. At present, the market is pessimistic about 2019. Will the market change be expected in 2019? If there are sudden changes in the industry, what links will it focus on?

Operation of polyester filament industry in 12018 years

1.1 price

Looking at the trend of polyester filament prices in 2018, the price of mainstream polyester filament products has increased further than that in 2016-2017 years, and POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F and DTY150D/48F low hit three have hit a new high of nearly three years.

At the same time, 2018 is also a year of intense volatility, which can be divided into three stages.

First, the stationary period. In the first half of 2018, the price of polyester filament followed the trend of fundamentals. During the period, prices fluctuated and there was no big fluctuation.

Second, the inflation period. On the eve of the 09 contract to face delivery, PTA, which has been accumulated for a long time, suddenly broke out. With the help and cooperation of capital and fundamentals, PTA prices rapidly rose in the short term, and spot PTA prices once rose to 9300 yuan / ton. Affected by this, polyester filament prices quickly followed the rise, and once hit a new high in the year.

Third, the rapid fall. The surge did not last for too long. After two months, the downstream terminals and polyester terminals were overwhelmed. At the same time, due to the anticipation and Sino US trade war, orders for the lower part of the market were ahead of schedule this year. The raw material price of the skyrocketing raw materials eventually exploded, and the polyester filament entered the rapid fall stage randomly, and hit a new low in the year.

1.2 profit

Profit situation, POY and FDY basically maintain the level of profitability in 2017, DTY due to the addition of a large number of additional ammo and Tong Kun, new Feng Ming bomb production capacity and sales strategy change, DTY profit situation further atrophy compared with 2017.

Specifically, the main changes in the profit for the whole year were concentrated in 10-12 months. During the period, the prices of raw materials were still subject to the sharp rise and fall of raw material prices and the weakening of demand. The DTY side is just the opposite. Polyester factories offer concessions and at the same time reduce the load of the loader, thus prompting a marked rebound in the end of the year.

According to the profit situation in 2018, although the profit of the whole year has been maintained well, the declining trend has appeared at the end of the year, and the later profit will return to the basic change of the supply and demand of the industry.

1.3 load

In 2018, the average annual load of direct spun filaments was basically the same as that of 2017, but the fluctuation was obviously greater than that of the previous years. The main change time node appeared in August, and as of December, it had dropped to the end of 2016.

There are two main reasons for the sharp fluctuations in filament profits:

The profits of polyester factories resulting from the sharp rise and fall of PTA raw materials have declined significantly, while the depreciation of stocks began to fall.

The gradual accumulation of inventory results in a shortage of working capital.

On the whole, the load of direct spinning filament remained high in 2018, but there was a significant downward trend in the second half of the year, and the expected overhaul intensity during the Spring Festival will increase.

1.4 inventory

Throughout the year, the average annual stock of polyester filament, POY and FDY in 2018 were slightly higher than in 2017, while DTY stocks declined slightly (mainly due to sharp fluctuations in prices, especially in the downward trend, increased control of inventory by the bomb companies).

At the same time, as one of the important factors that affect the profits of polyester enterprises, the stock of direct spinning filament has two opposite directions: high ends and low middle. By the end of the year, filament stocks tended to be near normal levels, but the pressure remained behind.

1.5 supply and demand

In 2018, the production capacity of polyester filament increased by 3 million 920 thousand tons (including 3 million 660 thousand tons of direct spinning and 260 thousand tons of chips). In addition, some polyester production capacity was revised. By the end of 2018, the nominal production capacity of polyester filament reached 38 million 140 thousand tons, an increase of 13.6% over the same period last year, and its growth rate was nearly five years. The direct spinning capacity is 30 million 320 thousand tons, and the slice spinning capacity is 7 million 820 thousand tons.

Judging from the supply and demand situation of the whole year, the overall situation in 2018 is still good. The apparent consumption growth rate in China has declined somewhat compared with that in 2017, but it remains at a high level of about 10% this year. At the same time, the export of polyester filament has achieved rapid growth this year, with a growth rate of over 10%.