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    Domestic And Foreign Futures Rebounded Slightly, Cotton Spot Market Was Closed.

    2019/1/8 16:44:00 123

    Cotton Spot

    Last Friday, the closure of Zheng cotton's recent contract CF1901 closed at 14255 yuan / ton, the week rose 105 yuan / ton, Zhou traded 17336 hands, holding 46332 hands, reducing 11346 hands, 19.7% reduction, close to delivery, turnover, positions were reduced.

    After the first trading day, the US market plunged to a new low, and Zheng cotton did not fall. The cost support was on the one hand. More confidence may come from the expectation of the supply gap in the future market, as well as the lower industrial inventory and the coming years ago replenishment.

    Futures rebounded after the spot price pactions significantly reduced, the cycle is only 2832 hands (19056 hands in the previous week).

    The stabilization of cotton prices has brought some support to the yarn price.

    Last Friday, the central bank issued a notice, which lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage points in January, and helped cotton prices.

    Cotton price B index 15445 yuan / ton, weekly fell 25 yuan / ton, less than the annual average of 394 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1901 contract, spot premium of 1190 yuan / ton, week reduced 130 yuan / ton, still higher is not conducive to the warehouse receipt registration.



    Futures side

    In the support of the good expectation of cost and market gap, Zhengzhou cotton week rose 75 yuan / ton, closing 371406 hands, holding 370932, increasing 8362 hands, little change.

    By the end of January 4th, the top 20 seats in the position were more than 155410 hands, an increase of 191 hands, 173569 hands empty, 3612 more hands, 18159 hands clearance, 3421 hands increase, short strength increased slightly, adverse rebound trend.

    As of the end of January 4th, buying 20458 sets of holding positions, reducing 620 hands, little change, sales of insurance policy 53087 hands, reduce 3024 hands.

    As of January 4th, 15080 registered warehouse receipts increased by 61 per week, the growth rate slowed down further, the warehouse receipts were effectively forecast 1763, the week increased by 214, and began to increase. Under the condition of sufficient registered resources, the rise in disk prices would attract the registration of warehouse receipts.

    Short term bad policy, warm air policy, 1CF905 rebound and space.

    Us disk: on the rise of crude oil and stock market, it rebounded on Friday. The main contract in March closed at 72.46, and the week gained 20 points. The intraday hit a new low of 70.65 in the year. The technology has already entered the next 66-76 shock interval, and the recent technical overshoot rebound requirement.



    On the spot.

    Futures rebounded slightly, and the spot price paction was greatly reduced. There was only 2832 hands in the cycle.

    Futures stabilization will reduce the impact of low point price resources on the spot market, and the futures rebound will also stabilize. It is expected that in a lower industrial inventory, the market expects a wave of replenishment needs before the year is worth looking forward to.

    Spot trading center is relatively stable, with a turnover of 50-100 yuan / ton.

    The mainland library is still dominated by 17 years of resources, selling at the point price. In the 17 year, the "double 28" Xinjiang cotton price is quoted at 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and the price of Xinjiang cotton is 14500-15800 yuan / ton, and the real cotton is 14500-15000 yuan / ton.

    The price is 16000-16300 yuan / ton, and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for customs Australia cotton, 15500-15600 yuan / ton for West Africa and India cotton.

    In the past 18 years, the long staple cotton warehouse has quoted a price of 25500 yuan / ton, and the price is relatively high.



    Acquisition of new cotton.

    According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of January 4th, the total sale of 5 million 775 thousand tons of seed cotton and cotton lint was increased by 101 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, representing an average increase of 543 thousand tons over the past four years, including 5 million 7 thousand tons of cotton seed sold in Xinjiang and 5 million 7 thousand tons of cotton lint, and 5 million 386 thousand tons of processed cotton lint, an increase of 529 thousand tons over the past four years, of which 4 million 735 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 1 million 512 thousand tons of cotton lint.



    Operation suggestion.

    CF1905 rebound is still sustainable, pay attention to 40 day moving average and 15500 yuan / ton pressure.

    Pay close attention to trade wars and national policy information.


             

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