Feng Mengxiao, Chief Economist Of China Cotton Storage Information Center: There Are Great Changes In The Supply Pattern Of International Cotton Market In 2018/19.

In October 11th, the national cotton market monitoring system released the "2018/19 cotton market situation early warning report". Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China cotton storage information center, answered the press conference on the 2018 cotton market situation early warning report at the press conference.

China Enterprise Network: as an important gap in China's cotton market, how much more cotton imports will expand in 2018? Will cotton import tariffs and cotton prices be affected by the international situation?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China Cotton Storage Information Center: according to the latest prediction of the national cotton market monitoring system, China's cotton imports will expand from 1 million 230 thousand tons in the previous year to 2 million 60 thousand tons in 2018/19.

In recent years, China's cotton import quota has been limited to 894 thousand tons of tariff quotas, and the issuance of sliding quota is very limited. The annual cotton import volume is basically maintained at around 1 million 100 thousand tons.

The main gap in the domestic cotton market is to rely on

To make up for it.

At present, the stock of reserve cotton has dropped to a reasonable level. In the first few years, the relatively narrow cotton import channel will be widened, and China's cotton industry will face up with the international market again.

Therefore, the cotton market in 2018 will be different, especially in the international cotton market.

Influenced by Sino US trade friction, China has imposed a 25% tariff on US cotton.

The competitive advantage in the Chinese market has basically disappeared, rather than the competitive advantage of American cotton.

In 2018 5-6, cotton prices in China began to decline after experiencing a rise. On the one hand, the Chinese government restricted the auction of traders, and at the same time, the trade friction continued to intensify. Until later, the two sides formally implemented each other's tariffs, which was a factor to restrain the rise of cotton prices. At the same time, the advantages of outer yarn began to appear, and the import of foreign yarn increased significantly after May.

Central People's Broadcasting Station: with the deepening of trade war, the domestic market is bound to be affected. As a cotton production link and processing link, how should we deal with this kind of impact?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China cotton storage information center, according to my understanding, the market was worried about the strong sentiment in 6-7 months, and began to turn pale in the 7-8 month. This has a certain relationship with the depreciation of the RMB. At the same time, the unique competitive advantage of Chinese products and the situation of looting in August have played a stabilizing role in the market.

China's cotton net will pay close attention to the situation of holiday orders in the busy season of recent market attention. Rational response may be crucial.

Central People's Broadcasting: how will the cotton planting area and price trend evolve in 2018?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China Cotton Storage Information Center: judging from the current basic situation, it is not conducive to the expansion of cotton planting area, especially for the inhibition of American cotton planting. However, for the Chinese market, the target price subsidy will play a positive role in cotton planting area.

For cotton prices, it is estimated that 11-12 months will be the peak period for the cotton market in the northern hemisphere.

The pressure will gradually decline, and the expected increase in China's cotton imports will rise again, when the market game is likely to materiality. If the funds intervene in speculation, cotton prices may fluctuate a lot.

China Enterprise Network: if foreign yarn imports increase, how should China's textile enterprises respond?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China Cotton Storage Information Center: this year, relevant departments are relaxing import quotas, reducing tax burden on enterprises, increasing export tax rebates, and taking protective measures against foreign trade enterprises, including promoting enterprise reform and reducing business pressure, including reducing capital costs, easing loans and financing difficulties.

Of course, we will also pay close attention to the sense of enterprise acquisition.

China cooperation times: how does the small textile mill with tens of thousands of spindles solve the cotton problem?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China Cotton Storage Information Center:

Without competition, the price of Australian cotton is high, and the quality of other cotton does not necessarily meet the demand. It seems that there is pressure on the enterprises that use high quality cotton. It is understood that the quality of Xinjiang cotton is very good this year, and the southern Xinjiang and Northern Xinjiang are all good.

For small textile enterprises, there may be new ways to look for cotton with prominent price advantage. India cotton and other varieties may be an option.

China cooperation times: the uncertainty and instability coefficient of the external environment increased in 2018. As the textile enterprises are facing big fluctuations, what early warning measures should be taken?

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China cotton storage information center, is now in the initial stage of cotton concentration. In the short term, market pressure will gradually increase.

For the late cotton purchasing direction and cotton price deduction, in view of the essence of ICE cotton rising in November last year, China's import demand is expanding.

Last year to this year

There has been a two rally ahead of schedule. Next year, the market mentality may be different from that of the past. And the international financial environment and trade environment will also suppress the market and the real economy needs to be stable.

If it happens to coincide with the lack of good investment channels and trigger large fluctuations in the market, it is believed that the exchanges and relevant departments will take measures to deal with them.