China'S Economic Trend Is Still Stable. GDP Growth Is Expected To Decrease In The First Quarter.

Affected by the Spring Festival, some of the economic data in February fluctuated, but most of the economic indicators improved and the trend of economic stabilization did not change.

Agencies generally expect growth in the first quarter to remain at around 6.8%.

Since last November, manufacturing PMI has continued to decline, and this year's February index has been approaching 50% of the ups and downs.

Worries about the downward trend of economic growth are revival.

However, the export and investment data of the first two months were expected to rise again. In March, the manufacturing PMI also rose sharply, stabilizing the mood of the market.

"From 1 to February and PMI in March, we expect economic growth in the first quarter to be around 6.8%, slightly higher than the same period last year."

Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities, said in an interview with reporters.

The National Bureau of statistics will publish GDP data in the first quarter of April 17th.

China Academy of Social Sciences, China Logistics Information Center, bank finance research center and other institutions have predicted that the economic growth rate in the first quarter or 6.8%, unchanged from the fourth quarter of last year.

Lian Ping, chief economist at the bank, told the Shanghai Daily reporters that from the three carriages driving economic growth, the growth rate of investment in the first quarter was accelerated, higher than the growth rate of last year, and the pulling effect on economic growth was slightly enhanced. Consumption growth slowed down, and the contribution rate to economic growth dropped slightly, but it was still the largest kinetic energy. At the beginning of the year, export growth was better and its contribution to economic growth continued to grow.

He predicted that the economic growth in the first quarter will be 6.8%, and that the whole year's economic growth may be stable before and after the whole year, and the whole operation will be stable.

However, some agencies predict that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter has dropped slightly, for example, the forecast value of Guotai Junan is 6.7%.

But the agency also stressed the two quarter.

Growth is expected to pick up again and remain optimistic for the whole year's economy.

Data released in the first quarter of GDP also included data on investment, consumption and industrial production in March.

It is generally expected that consumption growth will be stable in March, but export and industrial production will decline.

According to Zhang Jun analysis, the main macroeconomic data in March generally extended from 1 to February, but the export growth rate will decline after a sharp rebound in February. Fixed asset investment will rise moderately, and infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will be accelerated.

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Li Huiyong, a Macro Analyst, believes that in March, the consumption of cultural and office services will increase significantly, and auto sales remain strong. It is expected that the overall consumption growth will rebound to 10.2%.

The high-frequency data show that the growth rate of power consumption and coal consumption and blast furnace operation rate have dropped from 1 to February. It is estimated that the industrial added value will decrease to 6% in March.

Carding found that since the end of March, a large number of major projects have been launched.

For example, 1861 major projects in Sichuan province have been concentrating on construction, with a total investment of 799 billion 100 million yuan, and 910 key projects in Hebei have been concentrated on construction, with a total investment of 690 billion 610 million yuan.

There are signs that demand side is showing signs of recovery.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, said that in late March, industrial production accelerated, and the operating rate of the blast furnace returned to a high level. Demand was gradually released, and cement prices rebounded.

In April, the end of production and demand side is expected to continue to pick up.