There Is No Clear Intention Of Cotton Planting In The Yangtze River Basin. New "Difficult To Sell Cotton" Problems May Arise

With the approaching of the suitable sowing time for spring ploughing, the variety structure layout of planting and breeding in various regions is gradually becoming clear. The correspondent of China Cotton Network noticed that in the vast traditional cotton area of northern Jiangsu in the Yangtze River basin, due to the waterlogging and wind disasters in the cotton growing period of many regions in 2016, and the unstable cotton purchase price, the overall purchase price was higher than that in 2015, but the yield per unit area dropped in large areas, and the overall benefit of farmers' cotton planting did not increase significantly.

According to the survey, cotton farmers in the Yangtze River Basin were more optimistic about whether to plant cotton in January and February, and the predicted cotton planting intention was still slightly increased year on year. However, until now, the cotton planting intention once again known is not optimistic. Farmers generally believe that natural risks plus market risks have a negative impact on cotton The potential threat of yield and quality is increasing. The low mechanization of cotton production also makes young farmers less enthusiastic about cotton planting, and they tend to work in factories and cities to earn money.

In addition, many cotton purchase and processing systems in many regions have been transformed or even left the cotton industry after the cold shutdown in recent years. Sales and distribution will also face many difficulties. Some farmers are worried about the shortage of cotton seeds, and a new problem of "difficult to sell cotton" may arise. Based on the analysis of many practical problems and potential contradictions between cotton production and market, some government departments in inland cotton regions, especially in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast, have not paid attention to guiding farmers to develop cotton production.

Due to the further rise of ICE futures after the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum at the end of February, the intended cotton planting area of the United States is likely to exceed the previous forecast. Traders and analysts predict that the intended cotton planting area of the United States in 2017 will be 11.9 million acres, higher than the actual planting area of 10.07 million acres in 2016, which will be the highest level since 2012 (12.31 million acres). At present, cotton prices are more attractive than competitive crops. USDA will release its intention on March 31 Cotton planting area 。 Previously, USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 11.5 million acres and NCC predicted 11 million acres.

The constant changes in the market and the problems in the orientation are breeding farmers' ideas of abandoning cotton. In the traditional cotton areas in northern Jiangsu, the adjustment and change of land management model structure are also increasing the loss of cotton planting area. According to the survey of Yancheng, Nantong and other places in Jiangsu Province, we will find that in recent years, many local rural land has been changed and transferred after reclamation, consolidation and zoning, and many farmers in many places have no land to cultivate independently but have been transferred to large households or new agriculture in an all-round way investment Subject.

However, few of these large households and bosses who have obtained 100 mu or 1000 mu of land have planted cotton again. Instead, they have planted rice and wheat or set up efficient facilities for planting and breeding. According to the analysis of agricultural professionals, the transfer and disposal of rural land is still in the development stage, and from the perspective of the comparative benefits of current grain and cotton, other crops and cotton production, cotton is still at the disadvantage end of high production and marketing risks and low comparative benefits. Therefore, the more rural land flows, it is bound to indicate that the area of cotton flower withdrawal from production is larger. This phenomenon deserves the attention and research of the industry.

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