After The Two Sessions, Why Does The Market Appear Moody And Scary Step By Step?

In the 10 days after the closing of the NPC and CPPCC, the market trend was volatile, always contrary to the expectations of most people. And the shock is intense, frequent diving, can be described as "shocking step by step". Last Thursday, the market released more than 550 billion yuan, breaking through the previous high of 3264 and hitting a new high of 3268 points. On that night, the market is generally expected to rise the next day, and some people think it is expected to directly hit the 3301 high. However, there was a big dive on Friday, and all the way down throughout the day, the long Yin eclipsed Dayang and closed at the lowest point.

On Tuesday, the market stood on the 3260 point level again, with the potential to reach a new high. However, on Wednesday, the market followed the decline of the US stock market and fell sharply to 3221 points. Many people believe that A-shares are likely to build a "double head" of 3268 and 3264 points, thus turning the trend. However, after a strong consolidation on Thursday, it hit a new intraday high of 3275 points and a new closing high of 3268 points on Friday afternoon after three consecutive strong rallies.

Since late March, due to the strict assessment of MPA at the end of the quarter by commercial banks, and the serious shortage of funds in the banking system, the central bank has also asked banks to adjust the real estate credit ratio, making inter-bank funds urgent. Banks of all sizes borrowed money everywhere. The repo rate of government bonds exceeded 10%. The short-term interest rate between banks for three months reached 4.4%, a new two-year high. Some institutions have also defaulted. If the central bank did not invest funds in financial institutions for four consecutive days, it would not rule out the systemic risk that would cause widespread default. Therefore, the market is hesitant to go long.

Second, due to the shortage of market funds blue-chip share The selling was huge and kept falling. For example, petrochemical companies, banks, insurance companies, securities companies, and non-ferrous iron, steel and coal, the stock price has hit a new low in the past two months, thus inhibiting the upward trend of the market. Third, the crazy speculation of new shares led to serious losses in other indexes and sectors.

Since the management has reduced the issuing rhythm of new shares from 15 to 10 per week, and since there is no problem of non reduction in the size of new shares, the new shares have the advantages of small size, high transfer potential, and no firm position above, so from the Spring Festival onwards, The active funds in the market launched a fierce attack on the secondary new shares that were relatively low positioned during the high-speed issuance of new shares in December and January, and the whole plate rose by 30-50% in more than a month.

In particular, the newly listed sub IPO issued at a super low price has seen an astonishing increase. For example, Baiyin Nonferrous Metal, whose performance was only 0.03 yuan, rose 870% from 1.78 yuan to 17.20 yuan; The data port increased by 925% from 7.8 yuan to 80 yuan; Stir Wanlima from 3.07 yuan to 34.8 yuan, up 1033%; Zhangjiagang Bank was raised from 4.37 yuan to 29.51 yuan, an increase of 575%, with a valuation of 72 times, which was much higher than the 5-8 times P/E ratio of bank shares, and was suspended for verification by the management.

The sudden profit effect of the secondary new shares has greatly shocked the market and attracted the attention of the market, causing more and more people to abandon the old shares for new shares, playing drums and spreading flowers. But here I remind investors that this round of new stock speculation is almost over, and those who want to follow the rise again should overcome greed and control their own hands!

The main reason is that San'aifu's national reform plan, which has been suspended for 10 and a half months, has been repeatedly questioned by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and has not been resumed; Shanghai Electric and Yunsai Zhilian have also been suspended for a long time, so far there is no following. This has greatly delayed the pace of the reform of state-owned assets in Shanghai and shaken the confidence of some investors in holding state-owned shares in Shanghai.

In particular, on February 17, Bailian and Alibaba announced that they would carry out strategic cooperation to jointly create a business model of modern new retail and new formats, and their stock prices rose and fell continuously. However, due to the delay of its mixed reform plan, the stock price fell for 21 consecutive trading days, from a high of 21.51 yuan to a starting point of 16.20 yuan, trapping a large number of investors and greatly dampening people's enthusiasm for pursuing state-owned assets reform shares.

3301 is not only the high point formed on November 29 last year, but also a huge hold up plate. Moreover, in January last year, due to the preparation for the implementation of the registration system and the two circuit breakers, after jumping from 3539 o'clock at the end of last year to 3300 o'clock, this area is also a densely traded area, leaving many firm offers.

Sixthly, whenever the market dives above 3200, some technical analysts insist that "double heads have been formed and will fall sharply", "the most lethal C wave will appear if the backdraft fails, and the target will be adjusted to 2850 points", etc. Although the past effective technical analysis and prediction has been repeatedly beaten by the market this year, it will still frighten many people into a cold sweat.

These adverse factors have become the resistance to the market's upward movement after the two sessions. Most people dare not look at the space above 3300 and always look down, so they dare not actively go long, but frequently do price differences. Or you can go to the stock market to make a quick profit. There are still many favorable conditions for the 3200 point platform to move up.

After Trump took office, the whole market was worried about the emergence of "black swans" in China US relations. However, the result was positive: he announced that the US led TPP was invalid; Declare the official end of the Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy that the United States has adhered to for more than 10 years; The United States and China will not fight a trade war and will not list China as a currency manipulator.

When the US Secretary of State visited China, he also reiterated twice that the US government will adhere to the policy of "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation" between the US and China, and accepted the "three principles of a new model of major country relationship between China and the US" put forward by Xi Jinping before 2013; Trump also invited Xi Jinping to visit the United States in April to "jointly establish the direction for the US China cooperative relationship in the next 50 years". It can be seen that China US relations are much better than people had expected, which not only benefits China's politics, economy, military, finance and foreign trade, but also creates an extremely favorable external environment for the development of the stock market. Secondly, the pace of expansion this year has been clarified.

At the press conference of the NPC and CPPCC, Chairman Liu Shiyu agreed with the rhythm of this year's IPO when answering questions from reporters. At present, there are 8-10 IPOs every week, and he plans to solve the IPO barrier lake in 2-3 years. This is tantamount to clarifying the pace of expansion this year to the market and giving investors a clearer expectation of supply and demand. Thirdly, the wealth effect created by the hype of secondary new shares has played a positive role.

It has not only greatly improved the popularity and attracted new funds, but also created two individual stocks of nearly 400 yuan, several of more than 200 yuan, more than 10 of more than 100 yuan, and a large number of stocks of more than 50-90 yuan. This provides space for rediscovery of value for other high-quality mid and low price stocks of a few yuan or more, which is conducive to promoting market index Expand upward.

Again, the government work report proposed many new hot spots in the stock market this year. For example, the mixed reform of central enterprises, the reform of local state-owned assets, the Belt and Road Initiative, PPP, artificial intelligence, energy conservation and environmental protection, etc., will certainly become a lasting hot spot in the stock market. Once launched in turn, the space for the market to move up will inevitably rise from 2800-3200 shock boxes last year to 3200-3500 new boxes.

Is there no space above 3300? When the circuit was blown twice last January, the 240 points between 3539 and 3300 were empty. Therefore, once the 3300 point suddenly fell, there was a trading volume vacuum above. Especially at present, the blue chip stocks in the market, especially the banking stocks, are at a historical low. Once they start, 3300 points will be like the "wind blows the hat", standing up!

Finally, new funds continue to enter the market. According to the data released by the Chinese Investor Protection Fund the day before yesterday, 558200 new investors were added last week (3.13-3.17), the second time since the stock disaster that the number exceeded 550000, with a month on month increase of 8.64%. After the Spring Festival, the number of new investors per week has achieved six consecutive month on month growth.

Back to the last time when the number of new investors in a single week exceeded 550000, it still occurred in August last year, when the number of accounts opened in a single week was 634100. And then look at the time A-share At the end of August last year, the Shanghai Index fell sharply for several days, and then started a round of rising market. The Shanghai Index rose more than 10% from 3000 points to 3300 points all the way.

According to the latest statistical data of China Securities Investor Protection Fund, the closing securities trading settlement fund was 1321.3 billion yuan, and the transfer in amount of securities trading settlement fund in the current week was 531.4 billion yuan, the transfer out amount was 485.1 billion yuan, and the net transfer in amount was 46.3 billion yuan, a recent high.

At the same time, foreign capital has also actively entered the market. As of March 22, foreign capital The market value of A shares held through Shanghai Stock Connect is 196.378 billion yuan, and the market value of A shares held through Shenzhen Stock Connect is 187.4 billion yuan. From last Thursday to this Friday, the trading volume of the market increased from early 4000 to more than 500 billion, with an average daily turnover of 547.2 billion. The reason why the market can smoothly reach a new high on Friday cannot but be attributed to the power of new funds!

By the end of this week, the market had closed for 50 consecutive days on the new platform at 3200 o'clock. Compared with the 2900 point for 57 days, the 3000 point platform for 56 days, and the 3100 point platform for 61 days, it is getting closer and closer. By the end of March, there are still five trading days left. If the market is not impatient, continue to shake and consolidate on the 3200 point platform, and consolidate the 3250-3290 point line, the closing will reach 55 days. Then, it is expected that in the first ten days of April after the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, another new platform will be established at 3300 o'clock on the market.

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