The A-Share Bubble Has Overtaken "Beijing, Shanghai And Guangzhou". Where Should The Money Go?

Which is bigger, the real estate bubble or the stock market bubble? Obviously, people are more tolerant of stock market bubbles and can turn a blind eye to them, because the minimum trading unit of stocks is only 100 shares, and they can buy stocks with only a few thousand yuan of capital. In other words, there is no threshold for stock buying, and any adult can participate in stock buying. No matter how the stock price rises, everyone can afford it.

On the contrary, the smallest transaction unit in the property market is a suite, which requires at least hundreds of thousands of people to participate investment The threshold for investors to enter is high. Only middle - and high-income people or those who hold enough money can buy or hoard houses. However, once the house price rises sharply, many people with insufficient income may lose their ability to buy houses or be forced to withdraw from this market. Therefore, the rise of house price is far more sensitive and disturbing than the rise of share price.

As we all know, to measure the degree of market bubbles and speculation, the main indicators are the P/E ratio, turnover rate, and winning bid rate. Among them, P/E ratio is the most objective bubble detection indicator. The so-called P/E ratio of the stock market refers to the ratio of stock price to earnings per share; The so-called P/E ratio of the real estate market is the ratio of the house price to the annual income of each family. In fact, most individual stock bubbles are still very serious. Some people call this stock market prosperity a "structural bubble", but I don't think so. Obviously, this is not a "structural bubble", but a universal individual stock bubble.

Don't you see? stay A-share market At present, the P/E ratio of about 40% (40%) shares is more than 100 times, which is the "super bubble" of the world stock market! Table 1 also shows that there are more than 2000 stocks with P/E ratios of more than 50 times, accounting for 65.7%, that is, nearly 2/3 of the stocks with P/E ratios of more than 50 times. If this is not a "bull market", it is a "bubble market"!

Ten years ago, especially in the bear market years, we often saw a large number of 1 yuan shares in the A-share market. However, I don't know when A-shares became more and more expensive. Now we can hardly see stocks below 2 yuan. Even the super junk stocks with heavy losses are unwilling to bow down, and they are even speculated to the price of 10 or 20 yuan. This is also the realism and evidence of the big bubble in the A-share market.

In the A-share market, our shareholders will never allow the stock price to fall below 2 yuan, otherwise, they will be desperate to fight for it, and there will be a "leather bag company" who will lead the shareholders to scramble for and stir up the shell. Otherwise, a "shell buying and listing" will come! This is no dignity of junk stocks: investors will never allow them to delist easily!

In fact, stocks are too expensive, and most of them are artificially inflated, which is closely related to the high turnover rate. One proof of the abnormally high turnover rate of A-shares: in May 2015, when the last round of mad bulls ended, the statistics released by the World Federation of Exchanges showed that the total market value of the U.S. stock market was as high as 27 trillion dollars, nearly three times the total market value of China's A-shares! However, the turnover of Chinese A-shares in the current month was as high as $5 trillion, while that of the US stock market was only $2.1 trillion. Obviously, the high leverage, high turnover and high speculation characteristics of Chinese Mad Bull at that time were exposed Margin trading It's a great contribution.

In fact, in the A-share market, the valuations of both old and new stocks are generally seriously high. Most of them are frothy. Many stocks have lost their investment value. Only dozens of super large blue chip stocks have a significantly low P/E ratio.

Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that the bubble of China's stock market is far greater than the real estate or property market! In China's stock market, the reason why retail investors "speculate in stocks" lose money is that they are not investing, but are keen on short-term speculation and gambling. The Chinese people are not poor in money and the Chinese market is not poor in price, which is known to all people on earth. People are capricious when they are rich, but they are also worried when they are rich. This "panic" is a panic that there is no better way to maintain and increase the value. In addition, enterprises are short of money and investors are short of assets. Therefore, China's multi-level capital market construction and reform have a long way to go!

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