Ye Tan: Small Banks Are On Their Knees And Even Big Banks Are Borrowing.

The whole market is short of funds, including big banks including Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of communications and postal savings.

On the second day, some institutions even made up overnight funds at a price of 10%. An agricultural business trader said, "today we really borrowed it from early to late, and we borrowed more than 5 p.m., and several small agencies in the market finally broke the contract. It was thought that the interbank payment system would be delayed."

Not only small banks are on their knees, but even big banks are borrowing.

In March 21st, the overnight interest rate of SHIBOR rose by 1.52BP, 2.6477%, the highest level since April 8, 2015, and the 7 day SHIBOR rose 2.09BP, 2.7680%, a month's rise of 3.86BP, 4.3558%, all of which hit a new high since April 17, 2015; 3 rose 4.38465 1.35BP, a record high since April 22, 2015.

This time, money shortage was the result of deliberate effort.

First, the Central Bank of China followed the Fed's "atypical increase in interest rates".

As we expected, the United States raised interest rates by adding no meat and no extra food.

The Fed raised interest rates gently, raising the target rate of the federal funds rate to 0.75-1%.

On the day of the resolution, the US dollar index dropped by 1.20%, in March 16th.

Once fell to 100.14, when the week fell 0.91%.

The central bank keeps pace with the Federal Reserve.

Since the end of last year, the central bank has tightened liquidity further. The Fed announced 25 basis points for raising interest rates in the morning of 16 hours in Beijing.

7 hours later, the people's Bank of China announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate of the open market reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, and raise the operating rate of 6 months and 1 years MLF (medium term lending convenience) by 10 basis points.

The Fed's rate hike did not have much impact on the market, and China's interest rate fluctuated sharply.

China's financial institutions are too high in debt and unhealthy in cash flow. They are always trembling along the wire rope.

With a slight wind, the abyss of usury was dropped.

Second, any money shortage, the ultimate way is the central bank to pay.

To solve the bell, we need to tie up the bell, and finally we have to rely on the central bank to solve the problem.

In the face of a large group of hungry children, the central bank can not bear it.

In 2013, the money shortage was still in sight. In June 7th, the weighted average overnight repo rate in the interbank market soared to 8.6780%, and it rose to 15% during the period.

In June 20th, interbank interest rates in Shanghai rose all the way, only two weeks, and interest rates fell slightly. Overnight interest rates soared more than 500 basis points, and interest rates for the first time exceeded 10%, reaching 13.4440%, a record high. The 1 week interest rate also broke through 10% for the first time, rising by nearly 300 basis points, reaching 11.0040%, a record high.

This is also the case for the money shortage. At the end of the quarter, we have to deal with a rigorous MPA assessment and the bank's debts must be repaid.

According to Peng Bo's aggregate data, there will be about 730 billion yuan in the late March.

In the face of difficulties, the central bank has to come forward in person, otherwise China will not.

If you encounter usury, you will not be able to live any longer.

In March 21st, the central bank carried out a 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the open market, minus 60 billion of the reverse repurchase, and invested 40 billion yuan net.

After 17 trading days, the central bank made the first net investment in the open market.

In addition, Wind quoted media news that the Central Bank of China pumped hundreds of billions of liquidity into the market on 21 March, as part of the interbank market default on Monday.

In the afternoon, treasury bonds repo went down.

The risk has passed. There is no real shortage of money in China. Every dollar is a test of the market.

Third, unlike in the past, capital tension will become the norm. Small and medium-sized banks will not be able to compete for money.

It will be affected.

The characteristic of this round of tightening is not to reduce the basic money, but to leverage the stock money market.

Do you see this new deal in real estate? The main measure is to add hidden tax to developers and buyers.

Buy land to buy a house, you can mainly use your own money.

The same goes for the stock market. In the past two years, private non leveraged funds have been introduced into the stock market, and a large number of new shares have been listed.

It is a fake for banks to be punished repeatedly. Closing a door must open a window.

Next, securitisation and fixed stocks are advancing rapidly, and income is shared with investors, and risks are shared by investors.

According to the latest news, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. intends to raise the level of pledged bonds to AAA level, and AA+ and below rating bonds will not be placed in pledge. The plan will be implemented from April 7th.

According to people familiar with the matter, the new rules will be broken down, and the remaining bonds will not be affected.

This is another rigorous examination of financial institutions, which means that financial institutions will reduce their funds by half.

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