The Trend Of The Stock Market Has Changed: Where Is The Opportunity To Bottom The Bottom?

For the time being, the government's work report was released in 2017, and the dry goods were full.

Through reading this report, the basic thread of investment opportunities is clear.

Next, we will analyze them one by one.

Every spring, because macroeconomic data can not be released until mid April, the impact on the stock market is relatively weak. At this time, investors tend to focus on macro policy to judge investment opportunities throughout the year.

In the reform of the financial system, the government's work report put forward: "deepen the reform of multi-level capital market, improve the basic system of the motherboard market, actively develop gem and new three boards, and standardize the development of regional equity markets."

The positive development of the gem and the new three board indicate that there may be opportunities for this year's small ticket.

First, there is an annual rotation of large and small plates.

In general, the small cap stocks will perform better in the next year in the relatively good performance of large cap stocks (see chart 1).

For example, in 2009, 2012 and 2014, the performance of large cap stocks was relatively eye-catching. In the following year, large cap stocks were obviously losing small cap stocks.

The exceptions are only in 2011 and 2012, the large share market has won the small cap stocks for 2 years in a row. This is because the stock market in 2011 and 2012 has continued to decline. In 2011, investors have been killing valuations. Small cap stocks have adjusted more because of more valuations. By the end of 2012, the blue chips had won a strong rebound, because QFII was the only incremental capital in the market and preferred the steady blue chips.

Second, big cap stocks may lack performance support this year.

Early 2016

After 3, A shares went out of the performance driven bull market as the economy improved and profits rebounded, but in 2017 the cyclical stocks in the big market were weakened by the support of earnings.

First, the purpose of the supply side reform is to maintain the industry's profitability at a stable level. At present, the prices of cyclical products such as steel and cement are at a high level. The profitability of these industries continues to appear more difficult than the improvement of the ring, and investors are more concerned about the profitability of the ring than the absolute level of profitability. Therefore, the concerns of the two tier market investors and policy makers are not consistent. As long as the industry's earnings are stable, it is consistent with the policy objectives, but this will not bring the stock price to continue to rise.

Two, the government's work report pointed out that railway fixed assets investment was 800 billion this year, while last year's investment was 801 billion 500 million. The ring ratio did not increase. This year, the investment in fixed assets of highway and waterway pportation was 1 trillion and 800 billion, while the investment in highway construction was 1 trillion and 780 billion last year.

In fact, since the 4 quarter of last year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has gone down. From 15% in the 3 quarter of last year to 15% in the 4 quarter, there is some uncertainty in whether infrastructure investment can exceed the market expectations this year. If infrastructure investment is not strong enough, and the growth rate of real estate investment will also decline, there will be pressure on Zhou Qipin's demand.

In addition to market style, investors are also concerned about thematic investment opportunities. When the market does not have a particularly strong trend, hot topics will generally achieve good investment returns.

Summing up the thematic investment opportunities involved in this year's government work report, mainly include:

Along the way.

The government work report pointed out: "push forward the construction of all roads.

We must continue to work together to build and share together, accelerate the construction of land economic corridors and maritime cooperation fulcrum, and build a mechanism for large clearance cooperation along the lines.

We will run a high quality international cooperation summit forum and play a new movement of win-win cooperation.

Reform of state-owned enterprises and military industry.

The government work report said: "we must basically complete the reform of the company system this year.

We will deepen the reform of mixed ownership and take substantive steps in the fields of electricity, oil, natural gas, railways, civil aviation, telecommunications, and military industry.

We should do a good job in the reform of electric power and oil and natural gas, and open up competitive businesses.

Strategic emerging industries.

The government work report pointed out that "the implementation of strategic emerging industries development plan should be implemented in an all-round way to speed up the R & D and pformation of new materials, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, biopharmaceuticals, and the fifth generation of mobile communications, and expand and strengthen industrial clusters."

Environmental protection theme.

The government's work report said that "sulfur dioxide and NOx emissions should be reduced by 3% this year, and the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in key areas will decrease significantly."

The theme of "one belt, one road", state-owned enterprise reform and military industry has gone through a distinct rise. From the angle of cost performance ratio, investors can pay close attention to the theme of rising or falling.

But if there is a clear callback in the 2 quarter, along with the theme index of SOE reform and military industry, investors can participate actively, and wait for these themes before the nineteen major convenes to cash in.

First of all, the decision-making level emphasizes the deleveraging of enterprises, and to promote equity financing, it is necessary to maintain a stable stock market trend.

The government work report points out, "we must control."

Under the premise of reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises as the top priority.

We should encourage enterprises to revitalize their stock assets, promote asset securitization, support the marketization of the rule of law, pform debt into equity, increase equity financing efforts, strengthen financial constraints of enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, and gradually reduce corporate liabilities to a reasonable level.

It can be seen that increasing the equity financing and reducing the level of debt is a major focus of the government's work this year. Last year, the size of the additional financing scale was 1 trillion and 800 billion, the size of IPO financing was 150 billion. This year's increase and the structure of IPO may change, but the total amount of financing is still larger, so the level of the two level market will also be expected to be seen by the decision-making level.

Second, Internet finance is regulated, and standardized stocks and funds may benefit.

The government's work report said that "we should be highly vigilant against accumulated risks such as bad assets, bond default, shadow banking and Internet banking".

In fact, Internet financial products began to be under the supervision of regulators at the end of 2016. Once these financial products are regulated, residents' funds may flow to traditional stock and fund management tools.

It needs to be pointed out that this is the trend of the economy this year.

We can find clues from the lines between the full text of the government work report and the words that have important influence on the stock market trend.

Through the above analysis, do you have a certain framework for how to invest in the stock market this year?

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