The Competition For High Quality Cotton Resources Is Becoming More And More Exciting. ICE Is The Main Force Or A New Year'S High.

In the past two weeks, the main reason for supporting the main contract in the 75-78 minute / pound narrow body is repeated: "in February 16th, the US cotton export contract reached 89% of the USDA forecast. This year, the United States cotton will be" oversold ", and the signing of the US cotton contract in 2016/17 is even better. President Trump's plan to adjust the renewable energy policy may increase the demand for ethanol and biofuels, and the grain and soybean industry has risen sharply. The rebound in the external commodities has promoted ICE to go up; the US stock market and China's stock market have been rising continuously, and the growth of the global economic recovery and cotton consumption is expected to increase.

Since February 16th, the main contract of ICE futures has rebounded against the strong support position of 75 cents / pound, which has recovered 76 points / pound, 77 cents / pound and other integer points. However, due to the fact that China's cotton reserves have not issued the rules, the cotton growing area in the northern hemisphere has increased considerably in 2017, and the Fed's interest rate hikes in March have been shrouded, many funds are still cautious in the market entry, and there are no conditions for violent speculation.

Under the joint action of speculative funds, market policy coordination and the strong growth of cotton demand in Southeast Asian countries, we can not exclude the possibility that ICE will stand 80 feet / pounds in a phased way.

First of all, China's cotton picking up early or now "grab", the sharp increase in price quotes, triggered Zheng and ICE supplementary rise.

From the survey point of view, in the late February, most of the mainland textile mills and traders have stopped purchasing and operating new cotton in 2016/17, focusing on and focusing on the operation.

It can be described as "fighting hard, sharpening the sword".

From the use of reserve cotton can greatly reduce the cost of spinning, a small amount of pressure on liquidity considerations, small and medium-sized textile mills demand for cotton reserves is very urgent.

Judging from the calculation of Cotlook A, CNCotton B and CCIndex 328 in February, the reserve price of standard grade will be 15100-15300 yuan / ton, but taking into account the color level, fracture strength and other premium generally reach 800-1000 yuan / ton (a small number of 1000 yuan / ton discount), the reserve cotton price is lower than the spot market price 1500 yuan / ton, therefore, for textile enterprises with low spun yarn and large demand, the attraction of cotton reserves is very large.

Secondly, the "hot bar" of India cotton price and high quality cotton, black cotton and Australian cotton play a key role in the ICE climbing.

Although the cotton market in India has increased significantly since February (the daily average of more than 30 thousand tons), the progress is only slightly lower than that in the same period of 2015/16. Although the latest calculation of CAI cotton in India is still at 570-580 tons per year, and the cotton price in the domestic market is too high, the India cotton mill has signed a large number of contracts for importing American cotton, West African cotton and Australian cotton harvested in 2017, resulting in a significant increase in the export volume of India cotton this year. However, at the end of February, the ex factory price of India S-6 broke 84 cents / pound, hitting a new high of the year, and the atmosphere of the ginning factory and exporters "watching more and going up" was strong.

Not only in 2016/17

The export task for this year is about to be completed.

The middle and high grade cotton such as Turkmenistan also entered the late sale stage. Therefore, with the increasing proportion of cotton yarn 32S and above in Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Indonesia, the competition of high quality cotton resources became more and more intense. Supply and demand basically faced the support of ICE bottom.

Thirdly, the trend of external commodities or boosted ICE station's new high last year.

Recently, some investment institutions, including Citigroup in the mainland, believe that hedge funds are increasing their exposure to commodities as commodity prices rebound and investors react to macroeconomic changes such as inflation or acceleration of US President Trump Gee.

Because of the decline in the correlation with other assets, the attraction of commodities as an investment portfolio diversification path has also been enhanced, especially the steady growth of China's demand, and the end of the structural oversupply of key commodities over the years, which is improving the overall price outlook.

While the state and large commercial banks cut into the commodity trading field, the "hunting" situation is formed, which is conducive to accelerating the rebound of the disk.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.