Monetary Policy Tightening Inflection Point Or Established

Because of the changes in the central bank's policy, the IMF has quietly ushered in the "warm spring". This year, the average yield of the 7 day yield of the IMF reached 3.23%, which is significantly higher than the 2.55% level of 2016 in the whole year.

The industry believes that monetary policy tightening inflection point has been established, the IMF allocation value will be enhanced.

In fact, after the splendor of 2013 and 2014, the yield of the IMF decreased significantly as market interest rates entered the downlink cycle.

As is widely expected in the industry, the annual yield of IMF is below 3%.

Data show that on the first four trading days of the week, the average annual yield of all monetary funds in the market is 7, which is 3.18%, although it has declined compared with the average level of 3.34% in the last trading week before the Spring Festival, but it still stands at over 3%.

As of February 16th this year, the average annual yield of the 7 interval of the IMF is 3.23%, while in 2016, the average annual yield of the interval 7 is only 2.55%, indicating that the yield of the IMF has increased significantly since the beginning of this year.

Fund companies also seize this opportunity to promote Monetary Fund.

Single fund perspective, as of February 16th, a total of 33 monetary fund share 7 days of the year.

Over 4%, the annual yield of a single fund on the 7 day is over 6%.

The 7 day yield rate of the 6.1870% day and the 6.1670% day of the golden day B of Japan and Japan were 6.1870% and 6.1670% respectively, and the 7 annual yield of Jiu Tai was 5.9370%.

However, the two monetary funds are small in size and are less than 500 million yuan.

In the larger asset fund, Xingtian Tian Yi B/A, Yi Fangda cash increased profits B/A, Bo time Xin Xin currency, southern daily B/A B/A 7 annual yield reached 4.762%/4.524%, 4.494%/4.258%, 4.375%, 4.439%/4.195%, at the end of last year, the scale of these funds reached 8 billion 198 million yuan, 28 billion 791 million yuan, 10 billion 255 million yuan, 3 billion 141 million yuan respectively.

According to statistics, in February 17th, in the sale of high yield bank financial products, the expected annual yield in 5.5% (or more) of the bank's RMB financial products, a total of 3.

A commercial bank issued the "double profit series third RMB financial products" expected annual yield rate is the highest, 6%, the financial management period is 76 days, the investment threshold is 5 million yuan.

In addition, monitoring data show that the average expected yield of financial products in January was 3.98%.

Under the premise of low investment, low liquidity, high liquidity and convenient purchase, the current earning rate of the IMF is not inferior to that of the bank's financial products.

Before and after the lunar new year, "

A series of operations highlighted this change.

After the first trading day of the year of the chicken was raised, the reverse repo rate and the SLF interest rate (standing loan convenience) of the open market were raised, and the central bank suspended the open market counter repurchase for five days in a row.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the central bank has just raised the interest rate of MLF (medium term lending facility).

Intensive operation like rain indicates that the central bank has tightened monetary policy signals, and the market funds are getting tighter.

And the yield of Monetary Fund, which mainly invested in deposits, repurchase and interbank deposit certificates, also rose with the increase of borrowing interest rates.

More importantly, in the industry view, this trend of monetary policy is expected to continue.

Guoxin Securities believes that the increase in interest rate signals in the beginning of the year is more meaningful, preventing the public from easing expectations for monetary policy, but sustained monetary tightening will not benefit economic growth.

Therefore, monetary policy in the coming period will enter a period of "grey".

Under the premise of monetary policy being "grey", another factor determining the trend of interest rates is "society".

Changes will be crucial.

According to the financial data released in January, the medium and long term loans of enterprises exceed expected and off balance sheet financing for three consecutive months.

Lian Xin securities also pointed out that after August last year, monetary investment was "shortened and extended".

At the end of October, the Politburo meeting proposed to curb bubbles and prevent risks. By the end of January this year, the MLF (medium term lending facility), SLF (standing lending facility) and reverse repo rate were set up. The inflection point of tightening monetary policy has been established, which means that the more relaxed monetary policy in 2016 years is gone.

Under such circumstances, the yield of IMF is expected to benefit from this strong attraction and the value of configuration will also be enhanced.

Because monetary fund as a liquidity management tool, besides paying attention to its investment income, we should also pay attention to scale factors.

It is difficult to guarantee its liquidity requirements because of its small size. If the single redemption quota is too large, it will easily cause the fund to fail to pay in time.

In addition, the larger Monetary Fund has stronger bargaining power. Therefore, according to the research of Xingye, the long-term average returns of large scale funds are also higher than those of smaller funds.

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