Trump Brings Many Uncertainties. China Needs To Improve Its Internal Strength.

Currently in China

In the second half, asset bubbles and financial risks are more hidden. China's reform and pformation is urgent. In 2017, the central economic work conference set the pace to speed up reform and risk prevention. The reform of state-owned enterprises, finance, social security, taxation and so on is worth looking forward to.

We believe that these reforms will speed up the clearing of traditional cycle industries, improve China's economic structure and reduce China's financial risks, although this will bring downward pressure on economic growth this year, but subsequent economic growth will be more sustainable.

In the import of large quantities of goods to China, the dependence of the United States on China, that is, "the import volume of a certain commodity from China, the total import volume of such commodities", is also a consumer product, such as office and automatic data processing equipment (60%), telecommunications, recording and reproducing equipment (54%), timber and furniture (45%), and textiles, clothing, leather and footwear (42%), while the dependence on commodities in industrial and construction industries is about 20%, such as metal and metal products, rubber finished products, etc.

In addition, the dependence on travel supplies and bathroom and plumbing equipment is also very high.

The United States accounts for 85% of the top ten sectors of China's trade deficit, mainly including telecommunications equipment, automatic data processing equipment, clothing and accessories, electrical machinery, furniture, metal products,

General machinery and equipment accounted for 23%, 19%, 10%, 10%, 6%, 5%, 5% and 4% respectively.

In 2015, China's imports from the United States accounted for 8.9% of total imports. China's exports to the United States accounted for 18% of the total exports, and its trade surplus with the United States accounted for 43.9%.

From China's imports of goods to the United States, import and export rank in the forefront of Electromechanical, pport equipment, plants, chemicals and instruments, accounting for 23.8%, 20.3%, 11%, 8.5% and 7.6% respectively.

From the above trade structure, if China and the United States

In the absence of a comprehensive trade war, the products most likely to be affected by Trump's trade protection measures should be telecommunications equipment, automatic data processing equipment, some mechanical products and metal and metal products.

If there is trade friction with China, the Trump administration's goal is clearer, while reducing its trade deficit with China, its measures need to help revitalize the manufacturing industry in the United States, thereby replacing the commodities imported from China and improving the employment of the US manufacturing industry.

This makes the industries likely to be vulnerable to US sanctions, because these industries still have manufacturing capabilities in the US.

China's counter measures should be mechanical and electrical products, aircraft, automobiles and agricultural products.

The Trump effect will have an impact on China from trade, finance, direct investment and geopolitics, and China's challenge will increase.

We believe that China will respond to the challenges posed by the Trump effect through the pformation of internal reforms, free trade and globalization.

At the same time, it also brings opportunities to China.

At the time of Trump's trade protection and strategic contraction, China can expand its open policy, sign free trade agreements with more countries, promote China's opening process and the "one belt and one way" initiative, and expand China's influence.

Under the priority foreign strategy of the United States, China's "one belt and one way" initiative will be more easily accepted by neighboring countries, thus accelerating China's output and integrating Asian and Asian European economies. This will be an important opportunity for China.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.