The Trend Of The Luxury Industry'S Overall Warming Will Give New Hope To The Industry.

Over the past six months, the world's largest luxury group LVMH2016's fiscal year growth has also exceeded expectations. The fashion leather Department, which owns LV, Givenchy, Celine and Fendi, has recorded an increase of 8.2% to 3 billion 780 million euros, an organic growth of 9%, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 5%.

On the contrary, Bernard Arnualt, chairman and CEO of the group, is not optimistic about the future. He warned that the second half of this year will be particularly difficult.

As a visionary

Industry leaders, Bernard Arnualt's warning also gave the same industry a wake-up call. So what exactly is Bernard Arnualt worried about? Bernard Arnualt admits that every ten years will have eight years of good life and two bad days, and the ten year cycle will be bottomed out.

The slowdown may create opportunities for acquisitions and expansion of market share, and he predicts that the global retail environment will become more difficult in the next 10 years.

The US market is one of the most important LVMH markets. According to the third quarter earnings report released by LVMH group in October last year, the US market revenue accounted for 26% of the group's total revenue, which was close to 1/3, an increase of 6% over the same period last year.

It is noteworthy that after Trump won the US presidential election, some analysts believe that it will strike a blow to the luxury fashion industry.

A RBC capital market report pointed out that because the US president's results were too unexpected and the industry lacked the understanding of the details of the new president policy, there was too much uncertainty about the future of the United States, so the chance of volatility in the luxury market would undoubtedly increase.

Trump Zutshi, founder of Milan fashion business data center Fashionbi, told the luxury media LuxuryDaily that Mr Trump seems to be inclined to make in the US, and that European luxury brands may face tariff increases, resulting in their weak performance in the US market.

Luca Solca, head of luxury banking at the Paris securities and banking department, said in an investment report that once the United States takes 45% of its import tariff policy to China, including China,

The market is likely to suffer serious setbacks, and consumer confidence and luxury demand will both slide.

Last year, due to the election, LV shops in the vicinity of Trumpt tower experienced passenger flow in Waterloo. The rate of individual shops even dropped by 30%, which has made Bernard Arnualt feel uneasy.

10 days left Trump from the White House, Bernard Arnualt visited the United States to meet with Trump, after the meeting publicly expressed the plan to expand the factory in the United States, which is interpreted as a Bernard Arnualt to Trump's good faith, also can see that LVMH is so highly dependent on the U. S. market.

Bernard Arnualt strongly advocates creativity, product quality and long-term thinking ability. The luxury industry must not despise marketing. "If we do not do marketing, we will not be able to base ourselves on luxury market." of course, Bernard Arnualt will never belittle the public relations of American politics.

But uncertainty is the future normality of the US market, which is the biggest concern of Bernard Arnualt to the most important market.

With the implementation of the US border tax adjustment act, prices will rise in the US, so analysts expect us consumers to increase their overseas shopping expenses. How to balance the sales performance of the US region and other parts of the world will become a new challenge for the major brands.

Analysts pointed out that the proposal of the border tax adjustment policy put forward by Paul Ryan, the speaker of the house of Representatives, may become the most important tax policy adjustment in US history.

According to NRF estimates,

After adjustment, every family in the United States will be forced to pay 20% more for the same commodity.

To avoid the impact of the global spread on the performance of the group as far as possible, more than 120 companies such as LVMH group, Gap group, Target department store, Levis, Aberombie&Fitch and Nike have formed an alliance to protest against the proposal of the us to adjust the border tax.

The alliance plans to conduct publicity campaigns in the United States, causing consumers to pay attention to the impact of border tax adjustment. At present, a website keepamericanaffordable.com has been launched to publicize and appeal.

French finance and economy minister Michel Sapin also recently held a meeting in Paris, Casa said that the economic policy of President Trump would bring serious risks to the international trade order.

Michel Sapin believes that global trade is facing challenges of happiness. On the one hand, the growth prospects of international trade are worrisome. On the other hand, the advantages and disadvantages brought about by trade liberalization are also controversial.

He said that the protectionism that the United States decided to take will lead to global economic instability, which will adversely affect the French luxury industry.

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